The Champions League returns on Tuesday and Wednesday for the final round of group-stage matches. Here is what we saw in the Champions League last week:
- Real Madrid was upset for a second time by Shakhtar Donetsk, losing 2-0 in Ukraine and putting Los Blancos in danger of not making the knockout rounds.
- Inter Milan defeated Borussia Monchengladbach, 3-2, on the road to keep their hopes of qualifying for the knockout stages alive.
- Liverpool beat Ajax, 1-0, at Anfield to secure the top spot in Group D.
- PSG took over second place in Group H with their 3-1 away win over Manchester United.
- RB Leipzig needed a stoppage-time goal to beat Istanbul, 4-3, on the road and stay alive in Group H.
For the Champions League knockout stage, the top two teams in each group move on. Any club that finishes in third place in their respective group drops down to the Europa League knockout stage. That means almost every club has something to play for on the final day of group play.
However, there are some teams that have already qualified for the knockout rounds and have nothing to play for on the final day. I would avoid betting on a team like that, especially if it is playing against a team with something at stake.
If you'd like to read more about how I determine my projected lines and totals using an expected goals model, you can read about it here.
For the Champions League, my projections factor in UEFA Coefficients for every country represented in the competition. The projections also factor in the talent of each squad based on their total transfer value on Transfer Market. That way, the projections can account for the strength of the domestic league each club plays in and the talent level of each club.
You can use these projections to identify early betting value on the opening lines, and follow me in The Action Network App to see any bets I make throughout the week.
Note: These projections do not take injuries into account. The injury news highlighted below is for players that regularly would start in each team's starting XI.
Tuesday's Matches
Notes for Tuesday's Matches:
- Lazio vs. Club Brugge: Lazio can qualify for the knockout stage with a win or draw, while Club Brugge need all three points to move on. These two clubs drew, 1-1, in Belgium the last time they met.
- RB Leipzig vs. Manchester United: It's very simple for RB Leipzig: Win and you're in the knockout stage. A draw or loss drops them down into the Europa League. Manchester United drilled Leipzig, 5-0, when these two met in October at Old Trafford behind a Marcus Rashford hat trick. PSG have a very favorable matchup at home against Istanbul Basaksehir and hold the tiebreaker over both Manchester United and RB Leipzig. That makes this essentially a play-in match for the knockout stage.
Tuesday's Injury News:
- Barcelona: Ousmane Dembele (LW), Ansu Fati (LW) and Sergi Roberto (RB) are out against Juventus, while Gerard Pique (CB) is questionable.
- Club Brugge: Krepin Diatta (RW) is questionable to face Lazio.
- Dortmund:Thomas Meunier (RB), Erling Haaland (ST) and Manuel Akanji (CB) are all out against Zenit.
- Krasnodar: Sergey Petrov (RB) is questionable to play against Chelsea.
- Juventus: Giorgio Chiellini (CB) and Gianluigi Buffon (GK) are questionable to face Barcelona.
- Manchester United: Fred (CM) is out against RB Leipzig, and Luke Shaw (LB), Edinson Cavani (ST), David De Gea (GK) and Anthony Martial (ST) are questionable.
- PSG:Marco Icardi (ST) and Julian Draxler (CAM) are questionable to face Istanbul Basaksehir
- Rennes: Matin Terrier (LW), Alfred Gomis (GK) and Daniele Rugani (CB) are questionable to face Sevilla.
- Zenit: Dejan Lovren (CB) is questionable to face Dortmund.
Wednesday's Matches
 
Notes for Wednesday's matches:
- Ajax vs. Atalanta: Here we have another play-in match for the knockout rounds. Atalanta leads Ajax for second spot behind Liverpool by one point, so the home side needs a win to move on. These two sides drew, 2-2, the last time they faced off in Italy.
- Real Madrid vs. Borussia Monchengladbach: Real Madrid can secure their spot in the knockout stage with a win. If Los Blancos draw, they are going to need Inter Milan to beat Shakhtar Donetsk. Real Madrid needed two late goals to secure a draw the last time these two met in Germany. If Gladbach lose, they will need the Inter-Shakhtar game to end in a draw.
- Inter Milan vs. Shakhtar Donetsk: Inter need a win and some help to get to the knockout stage. Shakhtar can qualify with a win or draw if Gladbach wins/draws against Real Madrid.
- RB Salzburg vs. Atletico Madrid: It's also very simple for Salzburg: Win and advance to the knockout stage. The last time these two met, Atletico erased a 2-1 deficit to win, 3-2, at home behind two Joao Felix goals.
Wednesday's Injury News:
- Ajax: David Neres (RW) is questionable to face Atalanta.
- Atalanta: Robin Gosens (LWB) is questionable to Ajax.
- Atletico Madrid: Diego Costa (ST) and Jose Gimenez (CB) are questionable to play against RB Salzburg.
- Bayern Munich:Alponso Davies (LB) Joshua Kimmich (CM), Corentin Tolisso (CM) and Jerome Boateng (CB)are out against Lokomotiv.
- Borussia Monchengladbach:Jonas Hofmann (RM) is questionable to play against Real Madrid.
- Chelsea: Hakim Ziyech (RW) is questionable to face Krasnodar.
- Liverpool: Virgil van Dijk (CB) and Joe Gomez (CB) are out against Midtjylland, while Thiago (CM) is questionable.
- Lokomotiv Moscow: Dmitri Barinov (CM) is out against Bayern Munich. Fedor Smolov (ST), Mikhail Lysov (CB) and Ze Luis (ST) are questionable.
- Manchester City:Sergio Aguero (ST) is questionable to play against Marseille.
- Olympiacos: Bruma (LM) and Mattieu Valbuena (LM) are questionable to face Porto.
- Porto: Pepe (CB) is questionable to play against Olympiacos.
- Real Madrid: Eden Hazard (LW) is questionable to play against Borussia Monchengladbach.
- Shakhtar: David Khocholava (CB) and Viktor Komiienko (LB) are questionable to face Inter.
