Champions League action in the group stage wraps up Wednesday, with the final eight matches commencing in the European soccer showcase. Once the dust settles, we will be down to 16 clubs heading to the knockout round.
Soccer analysts Avery Zimmerman and Brett Pund have found their best bets on the card, with their selections coming in games featuring Wolfsburg vs. Lille and RB Salzburg vs. Sevilla.
Check out below how they're playing these matchups and what kind of betting value they've found in these showdowns.
Wolfsburg vs. Lille
| Wolfsburg Odds | +135 |
| Lille Odds | +215 |
| Draw | +235 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-115 / +110) |
| Day | Time | Wednesday | 3 p.m. ET |
| How To Watch | Paramount+ | fuboTV |
| Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here | |
Avery Zimmerman: I talked about it in our Champions League props piece, but I think Lille is in an excellent position to pick up a result.
Just looking at home and away splits for each team paints a favorable picture for the French squad. Wolfsburg has only generated 0.44 expected goals per game in its first two home UCL fixtures, while conceding 1.14 xGA/outing. Lille is better away in both metrics, averaging 0.86 xG/match and 0.91 xGA/fixture.
The respect being given to Wolfsburg just doesn't make sense to me. The Wolves haven't been much better in the Bundesliga, where they garner 1.55 xG/game and concede 1.33 xGA/match against lesser competition. This isn't a good team at the moment, and it's not one I back to pull off a huge result under pressure.
If you want to just look at form, Wolfsburg hasn't won a game since Nov. 6 and has lost four in that same span. Meanwhile, Les Dogues have won three games since that same date and haven't dropped one in that period.
If Wolfsburg was to win this game, it would be a major disappointment for manager Jocelyn Gourvennec's men.
Zimmerman's Pick: Lille — Draw No Bet (+125)
RB Salzburg vs. Sevilla
| RB Salzburg Odds | +210 |
| Sevilla Odds | +135 |
| Draw | +245 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-120 / -105) |
| Day | Time | Wednesday | 3 p.m. ET |
| How To Watch | Paramount+ | fuboTV |
| Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here | |
Brett Pund: Everything is up for grabs in Group G action, which is why I think this could be a cagey affair between RB Salzburg and Sevilla.
Yes, the first match between the teams finished with a combined 4.8 expected goals, according to fbref.com. However, there were four penalties awarded in that game, leaving the non-penalty xG at 1.7 for the match.
If you look at the whole of the competition, these sides have played in some of the lowest marks for all clubs. They both average under one NPxG per match, while also allowing less than one non-penalty xG per contest as well.
You also need to factor in the missing attacking players for Sevilla, which includes Youssef En-Neysri, Erik Lamela, Jesus Navas and potentially Lucas Ocampos. That group has accounted for 11 goals across all competitions.
In the four games against the other group foes, the fixtures with the Spanish side have averaged 2.13 xG combined, while Salzburg’s numbers are very similar at 2.26 xG combined.
Knowing that a draw might be enough to advance to the knockout phase, I could see Salzburg playing more defensive, which will make it even harder for a low-scoring Sevilla team to find a goal.
Pund's Pick: Total Under 2.5 Goals (-105)
