Chelsea vs. Fulham Odds
Chelsea Odds | -165 |
Fulham Odds | +450 |
| Draw | +310 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-115 / -105) |
| Both Teams to Score (Yes/No) | (-116 / -110) |
| Odds via DraftKings. Get the latest soccer odds here. | |
Chelsea look to turn things around with a new-look squad after the transfer deadline against Fulham to kick off the weekend of Premier League action.
The Blues were the busiest team in the world during the January transfer window, bringing in a whopping eight players for $329 million. While they are looking towards the future for a lot of their signings, Chelsea are currently sitting in 10th place in the Premier League table and are desperate for points to try and make up the ground between them and a spot in the top four.
Fulham are having a magical first season since promotion, as they're currently sitting in seventh place and just beat Chelsea 2-1 on January 12th at Craven Cottage. However, a lot of the underlying metrics suggest that Fulham are going to regress at some point this season, so we'll see if some of that comes on the road at Stamford Bridge on Friday.
Chelsea Have Newly Built Squad to Use
After all of the moves at the deadline, Chelsea’s attack has to improve going forward. They were much better against Liverpool in their last Premier League match, as they were able to create 1.6 xG and created two big scoring chances.
In fact, Chelsea ha created 5.2 xG in their last three matches, which included a really good offensive performance at Craven Cottage on January 12th, where Chelsea created 2.1 xG and had 10 shots on target, all while playing a man down for the final 30 minutes after Joao Felix got a red card.
The Chelsea defense has had issues all season long and in the short term I am not so sure they’re going to be fixed. They just sold Jorginho to Arsenal, Denis Zakaria is out for this match, and I have to imagine if Enzo Fernandez starts he’s not going to be very well-versed in Graham Potter's tactics after just two days in London.
So, we are in a situation where Chelsea have no midfield and have second-choice wing backs defending in wide areas for a team that is already 11th in npxG allowed and big scoring chances allowed. That's not great.
Fulham Facing Oncoming Regression
The Fulham defense is going to regress at some point this season and they can’t continue to keep getting away with allowing this many high quality chances.
Since the World Cup break, Fulham have allowed four goals off of 8.2 xG and have conceded six big scoring chances as well. Fulham are the worst defense in the Premier League, allowing 1.69 xG per 90 minutes. Overall for the season, Fulham have allowed 30 goals off of 35.8 xG to go with 37 big scoring chances.
Fulham were able to utilize the wide areas against Chelsea last time around without the services of their main man Aleksander Mitrovic, who was suspended for that match. He is so important to the Fulham attack, as he has created 11.3 of their 28.5 xG on the season.
Chelsea vs. Fulham Pick
Even though Chelsea made a whole bunch of new signings that will eventually make their squad better, this is still the same average team in the short term.
Without their two best fullbacks available and potentially being very thin in the midfield as well, I have major concerns with Chelsea's ability to defend Fulham in wide areas and prevent them from swinging crosses into the 18-yard box.
On the flip side, Fulham's defense is going to regress at some point and all of Chelsea's new attackers should help them improve, plus they did create over 2 xG at Craven Cottage while being a man down for the final 30 minutes.
I have both teams to score projected at -122, so I love the value on the current line of +100 at BetRivers.
