Chelsea vs. AC Milan Odds
| Chelsea Odds | -140 |
| Milan Odds | +400 |
| Draw | +290 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-110 / -110) |
| Day | Time | Wednesday | 3 p.m. ET |
| How To Watch | TV | Paramount+ |
| Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here. | |
Chelsea didn't win either of its first two matches in the Champions League, and now the pressure is on the Blues to deliver all three points in the home fixture against group leader AC Milan on Wednesday. The Blues are in their third match under new manager Graham Potter and had a comeback victory to beat Crystal Palace in the league on Saturday, 2-1.
AC Milan also rescued all three points from a difficult road match at Empoli on Saturday. The Rossoneri conceded an equalizer in stoppage time to tie the match at one, but then they scored twice in the final minutes of added time and won 3-1.
This is the first of two matches that Milan and Chelsea will play against one another in the next six days. The market has moved toward the Blues in the last few days due to a rash of injuries for Milan. While I liked Chelsea at the opening number, I'm instead targeting the total in this crucial group clash between the two expected top sides.
Chelsea
Chelsea may have come back to beat Crystal Palace, but the attack still struggled to create consistent scoring chances. They scored twice, once on a goal from outside the box by Conor Gallagher, but only created one Expected Goal in the match on Saturday.
The Blues aren't getting the level of production that they saw last season from both Mason Mount and Kai Havertz. Even with Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang inserted into the side, he's not going to produce at the level that he did for Arsenal in his last PL trip. One of the reasons he left the club was a lack of consistent shot production and chance creation as he aged.
The result is some quality pieces in this Chelsea attack but a lack of real cohesion. Potter will attempt to fix that, but he's likely going to need some time as Chelsea ranks 12th in xG created in the Premier League this season. The Blues are bottom five in crosses completed into the area and just seventh in box entries.
The talent is too good to stay this low in the table in attacking numbers forever, and positive regression is probably coming at some point. But it's unlikely to come in this match given that Milan has one of the better defenses in all of Europe.
AC Milan
The story of the match for Milan is the injury crisis. Goalkeeper Mike Maignan is out with injury sustained on international duty. Elite attacking fullback Theo Hernandez will be out, as will striker choices Zlatan Ibrahimovic and Divock Origi.
Olivier Giroud will play in this match against his former club Chelsea, but the attacking options for Milan are quite limited as they head to Stamford Bridge. Milan will have two of its top choice center backs with Fikayo Tomori and Pierre Kalulu available, as well as its solid defensive midfield pair of Sandro Tonali and Ishmael Bennacer.
Given Chelsea's problems in the midfield with N'Golo Kanté and potentially Jorginho out, Milan shouldn't be overwhelmed in the center of the park in this match.
Milan has however struggled mightily in the Champions League for the last two seasons. They finished last in the group last season and won zero matches. They've followed that with a lackluster road draw at RB Salzburg.
The story of Milan has been excellent finishing carrying them through last season and that finishing level regressing this season in Italy.
Betting Analysis & Pick
I originally wanted to bet Chelsea at -120 or better here, but the market has moved off of injuries toward the Blues pretty steep. Chelsea is the better side and is at home, but that's more reflected in the current price at -140 on the three-way moneyline.
Given Milan's injuries and the continued solidity of Chelsea's defense, it's hard to see how Milan will consistently create big scoring chances. The attack is fourth in Italy in non-penalty xG created but is now missing a couple key pieces in supplementing the attack.
Last season, Chelsea hosted Juventus — also viewed by the market at the time as one of the top teams in Italy — and was a -180 moneyline favorite. Chelsea have regressed since then and aren't the same dominant team, but the gap between the Premier League and Serie A only seems to be widening.
The Blues' press-and-possess style isn't something that Milan sees particularly often in Italy, a league that doesn't feature the same level of pressing intensity as the PL.
Milan's defense has conceded the second fewest xGA in Italy though, and Chelsea's attack hasn't been consistent at all this season. My projections only forecast 2.31 goals, and I like Under 2.5 at -110.
The Pick: Under 2.5 (-110)
