Chelsea vs Aston Villa Odds
| Chelsea Odds | +110 |
| Aston Villa Odds | +225 |
| Draw | +270 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -138 / +107 |
Chelsea and Aston Villa meet at Stamford Bridge for the fourth round of the FA Cup.
The Blues are starting to find their form after a 1-0 win against Fulham and a 6-1 rout of Middlesbrough in the league on Wednesday. Even though Chelsea have put up great underlying numbers, they are still a tactically flawed team under Mauricio Pochettino, which is why they are 12 points off the top four right now.
Aston Villa are having an amazing season, currently sitting inside the top four with dreams of qualifying for the Champions League. They've been in a little bit of shaky form recently though and have been less than stellar on the road this season, so a trip to Stamford Bridge is going to be a difficult one.
Here is my Chelsea vs Aston Villa prediction.
Chelsea
Chelsea's offense exploded on Tuesday against Middlesbrough, putting six goals in the back of the net in their best offensive performance of the season. There were a couple of things that stood out in that match that can apply to this matchup specifically against Aston Villa.
The types of teams that Chelsea have struggled with are teams that either are elite at high pressing or play solid low defensive blocks against them. Middlesbrough did neither against them. Instead, Middlesbrough opted to play a high line with a compact mid-block, cutting off the space between the two defensive lines, which is exactly how Unai Emery sets his team up. For the first goal, Chelsea were able to make a simple run off the back line, which led to a Broja tap in.
The first goal of six. 👏#CFC | #CarabaoCuppic.twitter.com/wgRIj3dRX8
— Chelsea FC (@ChelseaFC) January 24, 2024
Another thing that happened in the match was Pochettino was finally utilizing Enzo Fernandez properly. Fernandez is an elite deep lying playmaker that should aid in build up, and he is an elite ball progressor to get the ball into the final third. For most of the season, however, he was used in an advanced role trying be more of a goal scoring option, which is not his strong suit. If he starts being utilized correctly and especially in this match when Chelsea are going to have to make a lot passes over the top of Villa's high line, they are going to create a ton of chances.
The Chelsea offense has been on fire since the start of the new year. They've created the most expected goals of anyone in the Premier League during that time frame. A lot of that has to do with their ability to press high, win the ball and create a counterattacking opportunity. They did that to great success against Middlesbrough and are top three in the Premier League in both PPDA and high turnovers.
The problem that exists for Chelsea is when the press doesn't hit home, teams have been able to exploit them in transition. Since the start of November, Chelsea are allowing 1.72 xG per 90 minutes and overall for the season are 17th in final third to box entry conversion rate allowed.
Aston Villa
Aston Villa are in the middle of a historic season under Emery, but what we've seen from them is their style of play can be exploited by a specific type of team.Villa are going to build the ball out of the back and they are not going to send the ball long over the top of the first line of the press, which means elite pressing teams can turn them over high and cause problems. Manchester United, who are not a good pressing team, most recently forced 11 high turnovers against Aston Villa and had a PPDA of 7.8. Chelsea have been significantly better at pressing and just forced eight high turnovers against Middlesbrough on Tuesday.
Defensively, Emery has his team sit in a compact 4-4-2 mid-block that condenses the space in between the two defensive lines with a high back line. The plan is for Aston Villa to not allow teams to easily build up through the middle and with the right communication across their back line with Emiliano Martinez playing a sweeper keeper they can either draw the opponent into an offsides or Martinez can clean up any pass over the top.
Chelsea vs Aston Villa
Prediction
This match has the potential for chaos. Chelsea's matches since the beginning of November are averaging 3.96 expected goals, just showing how open they are playing.
Not only are Chelsea going to be able to make runs in off of Villa's high line, just like they did against Middlesbrough on Tuesday, but they also are going to have a massive advantage on set pieces. Chelsea are best in the Premier League in xG per set piece, while Aston Villa are dead last in that category defensively.
Aston Villa's defense has also been really poor away from Villa Park, allowing 1.55 xG per 90 minutes and they've struggled overall at limiting their opponents' high quality chances, ranking 15th in big scoring chances allowed.
I have 3.02 goals projected for this match so I like the value on the over 2.5.
