Chelsea vs Burnley Odds
| Chelsea Odds | -390 |
| Burnley Odds | +900 |
| Draw | +500 |
| Over / Under | 3.5 +120 / -150 |
Chelsea will try to extend their season-best unbeaten run in the league to five matches when it returns from the international break to host a Burnley side still clinging to Premier League survival hopes as spring arrives.
The Blues haven't lost in any competition since their extra time defeat to Liverpool in the League Cup final at the end of last month. And after a rough start to their campaign at Stamford Bridge, their home form has been exceptional of late, with wins in five of their last six such league fixtures and only one defeat in their last 14 there in all competitions.
Burnley enter the weekend five points on the wrong side of the relegation line despite winning their last league match 2-1 at home to Brentford two weekends ago. And they have yet to win an away match in any arena since the beginning of 2024.
Chelsea dominated these sides' previous meeting in a 4-1 league win at Turf Moor back in early October.
Chelsea
Mauricio Pochettino will surely feel like his side missed a golden opportunity in their cup final last month, suffering a 1-0 defeat at Wembley to a badly shorthanded Liverpool.
But it's perhaps illustrative of Chelsea's youthfulness that no hangover has followed. Quite the opposite in fact, with the Blues producing multiple goals in four consecutive matches for the first time this season — albeit with two of those coming against League Championship foes during a run to the FA Cup semifinals.
In the league, Chelsea's uptick perhaps just owes to a regression that has long been coming. The Blues' +2 goal differential is still nearly eight shy of what their xG numbers predict. But in their four-match unbeaten run, they've played to a +3 differential while accruing just a +0.5 xG difference in that span.
Perhaps this is reflective of 21-year-old Cole Palmer emerging to become a settling force in the final third. His season just keeps getting better and better, having now contributed two goals and three assists in his last three appearances. He has 26 goal involvements for the Blues in all competitions, meaning he's had a direct hand in more than a third of their total output despite arriving from Manchester City at the end of the primary transfer window.
Burnley
First, Burnley earned points in back-to-back matches for the first time this season — in a 2-2 draw at West Ham and then a 2-1 home win over 10-man Brentford. Then two days after the latter result, the Premier League announced a four-point sanction against Nottingham Forest for breaching Financial Fair Play regulations.
And suddenly, what looked like an unlikely gap to make up for most of the winter appeared doable again, with the Clarets brought within four points of the Trees and still five back of a Luton Town side that was now above the line.
Furhter, Burnley don't have any games remaining against the current top four, while it will play potentially three relegation six-pointers in their final nine matches: away to Everton and Sheffield United, and home to Nottingham Forest on the final day of the season.
But their last time out was a game completely transformed by an eighth-minute red card and subsequently converted penalty. Not that they should mind after they succumbed to a similar fate three games earlier in a 3-0 loss to Crystal Palace.
If Vincent Kompany can somehow lead Burnley to an escape, it will be largely because of the heroics of Chelsea loanee David Fofana. He's scored four of the Clarets' seven goals since the beginning of February, but won't be eligible to face his parent club on Saturday.
Chelsea vs Burnley
Prediction
Burnley have made headlines in part for their willingness to try and play idealistic, attack-minded football despite inferior resources on the Premier League level. It's the reason Kompany will probably remain in charge if and when the Clarets return to the League Championship. And it's part of the reason the price on higher totals is elevated in this contest.
But that tendency hasn't manifested itself so much on Burnley's travels. In fact, the total has gone over 3.5 only four times so far in away League fixtures. And every time it has, a top-half side has been involved.
Perhaps Chelsea should be a top-half side given their chance creation. But they still aren't at this moment. And regardless of if they become one or not, they've also been prone to similar tendencies at Stamford Bridge, where they have played seven bottom-half opponents and seen the total land under 3.5 on all seven occasions.
So that's the play here. At -150 odds and an implied 60.0% probability, it's well worth the steeper cost. If the line moves before kickoff, you can always consider an under 3.0 Asian Line spread in which a total of exactly three pushes.
