Crystal Palace vs Chelsea Odds
| Crystal Palace Odds | +375 |
| Chelsea Odds | -138 |
| Draw | +280 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -111 / -111 |
Chelsea suffered yet another set back at the weekend with a 2-1 loss at Wolves on Christmas Eve, and the Blues are now in the bottom half of the table as the season reaches the halfway point on Wednesday in their home match against London rival Crystal Palace. Chelsea did get a glimmer of optimism in stoppage time of that match, with new signing Christopher Nkunku scoring a goal on his Premier League debut for the club.
They are hoping that Nkunku is the solution to the lack of finishing and creativity in the penalty area that has plagued the Blues for the majority of the season once again. There's been a real lack of penalty area efficiency and finishing variance, and it has cost the Blues a ton of points despite relatively solid underlying numbers once again.
The market has moved solidly toward Crystal Palace since Sunday, and the Eagles come into this match with three extra days of rest after a hard earned draw at Brighton on Thursday. With the Eagles' best attacking options available, expect goals and chances in this match on Wednesday.
Here is how I'm betting Chelsea vs Crystal Palace.
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Chelsea
Chelsea produced a full two expected goals and with better finishing, they may have beaten Wolves on the road on Sunday. The Blues have struggled against teams who sit deep and absorb pressure and force the Blues to operate in tight spaces without space to run in behind. In theory, Palace are the perfect foil to make life difficult for Chelsea in this type of matchup.
However, the Blues saw in just 30 minutes of Nkunku how valuable he could potentially be for this attack. The Chelsea attacker had four shots, three progressive passes, two passes into the penalty area and a goal off the bench. His close control and his elite passing range is the perfect partnership with the runners like Nico Jackson and Armando Broja. The Blues will be without Raheem Sterling and Cole Palmer due to yellow card suspension, which makes it all the more likely Nkunku will start.
There are fair reasons to be concerned about Nkunku sustaining his Bundesliga production given how open that league is and how much it inflates attacking production. Even if you take off 30% from his 0.90 xG + xA at RB Leipzig last year, he's still going to produce north of 0.5 xG + xA per match.
The Blues have been the most efficient set piece team in the entire league this year, ranking first in xG produced per set piece. Given Nkunku's history as a set piece taker from his past, the Blues project to have a huge edge there offensively.
Crystal Palace
Crystal Palace have had very few minutes this season with both Michael Olise and Eberechi Eze on the pitch at the same time. They looked quite dangerous in the closing minutes against Manchester City with both out there, rescuing a key point. Given the quality both have shown at points of last and this season, there's a ton of transition ball progression on the pitch for the Eagles to threaten a Chelsea defense that has shown plenty of cracks overall.
Palace have also played a lot of minutes this year with neither on the pitch and it has blunted their attacking numbers considerably. On/off splits are notoriously variable in soccer, but Eze's splits have been especially dramatic. They've been 0.9 goals per match better with Eze on the pitch than when he's off it. Even though they've faced Liverpool, Manchester City and Brighton in the last three matches, they managed to create at least one non-penalty xG in all three matches and drew a penalty in two of the three as well.
The defensive numbers have taken a bit of a dip since they lost their best ball winner in midfield, Cheick Doucoure. The system under Hodgson and plan is clear. Allow crosses and box entries into the final third, but deny service to the penalty area. With the amount of attacking talent they'll have on the pitch, Palace will threaten a Chelsea defense that has the 10th-best overall numbers in 11 on 11 minutes this season.
Chelsea vs. Crystal Palace
Prediction
If Nkunku is in the starting lineup and Eze starts for Crystal Palace, this total is too low at 2.5. The Blues' transition defensive issues will present opportunities for Hodgson's side on the break and the total should be closer to 2.75.
