Chelsea vs Crystal Palace Odds
| Chelsea Odds | -167 |
| Crystal Palace Odds | +400 |
| Draw | +333 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -200 / +162 |
Chelsea look to keep the positive momentum going when they host Crystal Palace at Stamford Bridge.
The Blues exploded on Sunday against Wolves scoring six goals with four of them coming in the second half. There has been a massive amount of turnover at the club and this will still only be Enzo Maresca's third Premier League match in charge. They were very poor on Thursday in a Europa Conference League qualifier against Swiss side Servette, so they could be vulnerable at home on Sunday.
Crystal Palace have now lost their opening two matches, but they really deserved more. They dominated the first hour against West Ham then had a couple of bad breaks go against them. The Eagles have been brilliant so far under Oliver Glasner and despite losing a couple key players during this transfer window, the core of the team is still there and they are a really difficult team to beat.
Read on for my Chelsea vs. Crystal Palace prediction.
Chelsea
Chelsea were impressive against Wolves, putting six goals in the back of the net, but they still showed vulnerabilities out of possession that could lead them to getting upset here.
They weren’t problems against Wolves, but they will be problems going forward if Chelsea doesn’t dial back the aggressiveness of their high press. Wolves are a terrible build up team and Chelsea kept forcing them to either turn the ball over or send the ball long. That is going to change against Crystal Palace, who are a very good build up team and are really good at playing through the middle of the pitch.
Chelsea also were fortunate to be in a positive game state for most of that match against Wolves. They scored in the second minute off of a set piece, which forced Wolves to press higher than they would have liked. They also scored a lot of low quality chances in the match. Of the six goals they scored, they only had a combined xG rating of 0.73.
They still don't have a consistent striker up top that can give them steady goal scoring production and relying on wingers to create all of your chances is not sustainable at the highest level of football.
Crystal Palace
I don’t think there is any reason to downgrade Crystal Palace after losing their opening two matches of the season. They were really impressive for the first hour against West Ham, as they were able to control the match, be effective with their high press, and constantly live in West Ham’s penalty area.
For the match, Crystal Palace had a 75% field tilt, forced 22 high recoveries, and had double the amount of final third touches as West Ham. Glasner’s 3-2-5 build up has been really good and it’s only about to get better because Adam Wharton is now going to be able to play a more advanced position with Cheick Doucouré back in the lineup.
Cheick Doucouré is by far the best defensive midfielder has and he’s finally made his return from a long term injury. Most of last season they were relying on Will Hughes to be their main number six and it just wasn’t that great. Doucoure two years ago had 130 tackles + interceptions, which was sixth-most in the Premier League. His defensive cover will allow Wharton to flourish and will make Crystal Palace not only a better defensive team, but allow them to be even better in build up.
Chelsea vs Crystal Palace
Betting Pick & Prediction
One of the underrated aspects under Glasner was how good and versatile Crystal Palace is out of possession. They will typically play our of a 5-2-3 midblock, which not going to allow Chelsea to overload the last line of defense. They also play very compact, which makes it very hard for teams to find space in between the lines. For a team like Chelsea, thats going to be a real problem because under Maresca he wants them to rely on short passes to play through an opponents defensive block. Palace is not going to let Chelsea overload the middle of the pitch and will force them to play more long balls, which is not something Chelsea is really good at.
I think Chelsea are overvalued in this spot coming off a 6-2 win, but they also didn't look good against Servette in either meeting in the Europa Conference League qualifiers conceding 36 shots over the two matches. Even Wolves last weekend put well over two expected goals and with how aggressive Chelsea out of possession, it's going to leave them exposed when Palace is able to beat the first line of pressure.
I only have Chelsea projected at -114, so I like the value on Crystal Palace +1 at -115.
