Chelsea vs Everton Odds
| Chelsea Odds | -138 |
| Everton Odds | +333 |
| Draw | +320 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -188o / +150u |
Matchweek 33 in the Premier League comes to a close Monday as Everton visits Chelsea. The Toffees were handed a two-point deduction Monday for a breach of the PL's profitability and sustainability rules. That brings the total deduction to eight points across two different violations, and now the Toffees are in the midst of a relegation race they don't deserve to be in based on on-field performances. Everton has 27 points entering Monday, two points ahead of 18th-place Luton Town.
Because West Ham and Manchester United both dropped points this weekend, the door is now wide open for Chelsea to make a run at the top six or seven. As much as it has been inconsistent this season, Chelsea is six points behind both United and Newcastle with two games in hand on both. They're only four points behind West Ham but have three matches extra to play over their London rivals.
Chelsea has an FA Cup semifinal coming up against league leaders Manchester City this weekend, but Everton is much better than its table position would indicate and plays a defensive style that has given Chelsea trouble at times this year.
Let's dive into this Premier League matchup with our Chelsea vs. Everton prediction and pick.
Chelsea
Chelsea has been awarded 11 penalties this season, two more than every other PL team. When you combine that with their other underlying stats, you can see where their attacking efficiency can be a bit inflated. For example, Chelsea ranks just sixth in non-penalty xG per 90, ninth in shots and ninth in passes played into the opposition penalty area.
The Blues have excelled at various times this year when playing in transition, but they've had real issues when facing defenses that sit deep and cede possession to the opponent. Chelsea is bottom five in the league in average shot distance from goal and it doesn't rank inside the top six in any of the key ball progression volume metrics. Basically, Chelsea relies on creating a handful of big chances from its transitions, and when it doesn't get them, the attack is quite inconsistent as a result. Even though the Blues created 7.2 xG in two home matches against Burnley and Manchester United — with penalty and red card variance included — we just saw Sheffield United hold Chelsea to 0.5 xG in their most recent match.
We now have 2,481 minutes of Chelsea this season with 11-on-11 and penalties excluded. They've had a handful of outliers that must be removed from their sample — Tottenham away and the penalty luck especially. Chelsea has averaged 1.68 xG per match, seventh best in the PL. They have conceded 1.41 per match, which is eighth best.
When you combine those two numbers into an aggregate, you end up around the sixth best team in the Premier League this season. They sit eighth in points per match. Cole Palmer has eight non-penalty goals and nine assists in 22 matches this year, which is extremely encouraging for the Blues' rebuilding project, but this matchup is a recipe for struggles to break down a stingy Everton defense.
Everton
Everton has the fourth-best defensive metrics in the entire Premier League once you remove some extraneous variance. There's the clear top three that soar over the rest, and then Everton is fourth at 1.31 non-penalty xGA per 90 in 11-on-11 minutes this year. The problem for the Toffees has been goal-scoring. Not only has Everton run bad from a finishing perspective vs. xG, but the attack has steadily seen a marginal decline in both shot volume and shot quality in the second half of the season.
Everton finally managed to win a match for the first time in 2024 in its 1-0 defeat of Burnley, but it took a moment of incredible fluke to actually score a goal and generate margin. The home match was otherwise a stalemate with Burnley, which is a downgrade in the Toffees' power rating.
The Toffees are heavily reliant on set pieces to generate attack. As an underdog, it's what you look for to create an edge given you won't have most of the possession. Sean Dyche's side is top three in xG per set piece and goals from set pieces, and it's helped them overcome a lackluster open play attack.
Chelsea vs Everton
Prediction
Since 2024 began, Everton has produced 0.56 goals per match. The attack has been remarkably inefficient, even though they've created 1.29 xG per match. The market is expecting this Everton attack to run closer to its xG numbers, but the sheer overreliance on set plays makes Everton an Under team for me right now.
Everton can sit deep, absorb pressure and frustrate Chelsea with its excellent defensive organization. The Toffees will always be dangerous from set plays at the other end, but this total sits at 3 and a more passive Everton out of possession doesn't warrant a total this high.
Pick: Under 3 (-110)
