Chelsea vs Fulham Odds
| Chelsea Odds | -163 |
| Fulham Odds | +425 |
| Draw | +300 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -163 / +130 |
Both Chelsea and Fulham played in the midweek in their respective Carabao Cup semifinal matches. Both suffered one goal away defeats in the first leg but will have a real chance to turn around their respective ties at home in the second leg. While most of the EPL has had a bit of a pause in early January, the fixtures continue to come fast and frequent for these two west London rivals.
Chelsea beat Fulham at Craven Cottage in the first meeting, and the two sides will meet at Stamford Bridge as the Premier League resumes with a shortened five match slate. Fulham have been a beacon of inconsistency of late under Marco Silva. The Cottagers won three of four and scored 16 goals, then followed it up with three consecutive scoreless defeats to Newcastle, Bournemouth and Burnley. Fulham then beat Arsenal 2-1 at home to conclude the festive fixtures with a massive upset.
Neither team has been able to find consistent form, but Chelsea's recent wobble has them priced lower in the market than they should be on Saturday.
Here is my Chelsea vs Fulham prediction.
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Chelsea
Chelsea have won three of four matches in the league, but the midweek defeat to Middlesbrough in the EFL Cup is another indictment of the Todd Boehly project. The Blues are nearly two years into the rebuild under him and they sit 10th in the Premier League, on their fourth manager. Mauricio Pochettino's squad is extremely active and aggressive pressing the ball out of possession — the Blues rank fourth in high turnovers forced, third in build-up completion rate allowed and third in passes per defensive action. It's led to Chelsea creating a +10.4 xG difference thus far this season, which is a tick better than Aston Villa and good enough for fourth-best in the PL.
Why haven't the underlying performances translated to more points? It's the same story as last season. Despite overhauling the entire attacking unit, the finishing woes have continued. Chelsea have 34 goals scored from 39.4 xG and they've conceded more than their xGA as well. Cole Palmer and Christopher Nkunku are expected to be the two main shot getters in this match and both pass the eye test and data as quality finishers. Nicolas Jackson is the primary culprit of the Blues' underperformance, and while he's posted impressive shot numbers, he's away at the Africa Cup of Nations.
The Blues have maintained and improved their elite press under Pochettino, but the defensive numbers have taken a slide in the last two months. Two of Chelsea's three main midfield ball winners — Moises Caicedo and Enzo Fernandez — have seen their tackles + interceptions numbers take a step back this season. Conor Gallagher has been a stellar box to box midfielder, but the Blues are vulnerable to crosses from wide areas and they're vulnerable once the first line of the press is broken through.
Pochettino has taken more risks in possession and the Blues have also sent more numbers forward. It's a more open approach but the results have been a top three PL attack since November began. Earlier this year, Chelsea struggled to create at a top five level. Even if the defense is marginally worse now, the attack is making up for that.
Fulham
Fulham's away performances against the top attacking sides in the league don't offer a ton of optimism for how they'll perform on Saturday. The Cottagers conceded 3.5 xGA to Newcastle (red card aided), 3.2 xGA to Arsenal, 3.0 to Aston Villa, 2.2 to Liverpool and 2.3 xGA to Manchester City. Their schedule has been extremely unbalanced in that they've played almost all of their toughest matches away from home this year.
We can go back to the first matchup for some intuition on how this may go. Chelsea didn't create a ton of constant pressure away from home, but the press forced Fulham into a handful of high turnovers and they capitalized on them. The problem for Fulham is that the attack is still relatively inconsistent and doesn't hold up when you look at their underlying numbers. Alex Iwobi is a sneaky important loss to AFCON because of his midfield energy but also his box entries and shot production from midfield.
Fulham don't get much from their striker in terms of shots, and it's a major reason why the Cottagers are bottom five in xGF per 90, expected threat and box touches. The metrics suggest Fulham can do a solid job preventing Chelsea from dominating territory and shot totals, but that the Fulham defense will concede a few big scoring chances to a Chelsea attack that ranks first in xG per set piece and third in big scoring chances.
The Cottagers don't prevent big scoring chances or set piece opportunities and Chelsea can take advantage there.
Chelsea vs Fulham
Prediction
Chelsea have underperformed their xG despite the second-highest xG per shot created in the entire Premier League. There are plenty of nothing shots in the Blues' attacking profile, but this Chelsea team has created more good shots than the teams that badly underperformed last year. Chelsea aren't infallible and they've struggled for consistency, but this price is short when you compare opponent moneylines against Fulham this season.
Brighton, Spurs and Villa all closed -170 or higher against Fulham in home matches. The Cottagers lost two of those three and Chelsea are no worse by power rating than those three teams. Chelsea at -170 or better are undervalued to take all three points.
