Chelsea vs Liverpool Odds
| Chelsea Odds | +225 |
| Liverpool Odds | +110 |
| Draw | +260 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -143o / +110u |
Chelsea and Liverpool meet for the second time in less than a month in the Carabao Cup final at Wembley Stadium.
Chelsea has been in interesting form in the Premier League, coming off an upset at the hands of Wolves followed up by a draw against Manchester City at the Etihad. The Blues did have a pretty easy path to the final with their only two wins against Premier League teams coming against Brighton and Newcastle both at home.
Much like Chelsea, Liverpool's path to the Carabao Cup final has been pretty easy. It beat Leicester, Bournemouth, West Ham and Fulham to get here, which is not exactly a murderers' row. The Reds are in great form in the Premier, League coming off three straight wins, but are dealing with a lot of injuries heading into this final.
Let's dive into our Chelsea vs. Liverpool preview and pick.
Chelsea
We have the benefit of these two very recently playing at Anfield, and Liverpool ripped Chelsea apart. One of the reasons why Chelsea has gotten results against top-tier teams like Manchester City, Arsenal and Tottenham is because it is much better when it is playing as a transition team. The problem when it faced Liverpool was it actually was holding a decent amount of possession, but every time Liverpool won the ball, it had numbers in transition against a Chelsea defense that has really struggled to defend on the break, ranking 18th in final third to box entry conversion rate.
Chelsea decided to play a high line against Liverpool, which didn’t really work because it didn’t press Liverpool effectively enough, forcing just one high turnover and having a PPDA of 16.5. Liverpool was constantly able to play long balls up to the front line and cause problems. Liverpool was consistently able to get five guys pushed up on Chelsea’s back four, which caused the Blues all sorts of problems.
Chelsea has switched its pressing structure a little bit. Conor Gallagher is now pressing from the front line, which is good because he is their best pressing midfielder. The problem though for Chelsea — and it happened against Liverpool — is too big of a gap in the midfield in build-up. Often what is happening is Moisés Caicedo is being isolated in the middle of the pitch, so when Chelsea does lose the ball, he is the only protection in front of the back line. Liverpool exploited that time and again on its way to creating 2.9 expected goals and taking 27 shots.
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Liverpool
Liverpool destroyed Luton Town on Wednesday without Darwin Núñez or Mohamed Salah, but it is going to need both of them for this cup final. In the previous match against Chelsea, although he didn't score, Núñez was key to Liverpool's offense. Of the 27 shots from Liverpool in that match, Núñez had 11 of them. He also did an incredible job making runs off Chelsea's last line, which if Cody Gakpo is going to be starting up top, he's not going to be able to do that to Núñez's level.
Liverpool could also really use Salah back in the lineup. Diogo Jota and Dominik Szoboszlai are most likely going to miss this match, which means Liverpool will be forced to start Harvey Elliott at right wing. He doesn't nearly put up the production numbers that Salah does considering Salah was at his best form that we've ever seen in a Liverpool shirt before the injury. He is currently sitting with a +1.19 xG + xA per 90 minute rate, which is second best in the Premier League behind only Erling Haaland.
Jürgen Klopp is pushing the throttle all the way right now in terms of Liverpool tactically. Their counter pressing has been out of this world ever since they fully integrated Wataru Endō and Ryan Gravenberch to the squad. Since the beginning of November, Liverpool's PPDA is at 6.78, which is almost unheard of with the Premier League average being around 11. They forced two goals off high turnovers against Luton Town on Wednesday and forced 12 high turnovers against Chelsea in the previous meeting.
There are a couple weaknesses in this Liverpool defense, and one of them is clearly on set pieces. The Reds are 17th in xG per set piece allowed, while Chelsea is top seven in xG per set piece. Plus, their defense has run incredibly well all season, allowing 24 goals off 32.1 expected goals.
Chelsea vs Liverpool
Prediction
Naturally you would think since it's a cup final, it's going to be a cagey affair, but that has not been the case with any Chelsea-Liverpool matches in recent history.
Both meetings have had at least 2.8 expected goals created, and the meeting three weeks ago was incredibly back and forth, with both teams mainly trying to play in transition. That is the way Klopp wants it; he doesn't really want control of the match if it means Liverpool can play very direct. The bad news for Chelsea is that is actually when it is at its best offensively, so I have a feeling this match is going to get off the rails just like the previous meeting.
I really like the value on Over 2.5 goals at -143, but only if Salah and Núñez play.
Pick: Over 2.5 (-143 via Bet365)
