Man City begin their title defense when they travel to Stamford Bridge to take on Chelsea.
Manchester City have won four straight Premier League titles, but getting their fifth in a row may not be that straight forward. They have had a quiet summer in terms of transfers and the looming verdict regarding their 115 FFP charges in early 2025 has put a damper on the excitement of new season. They struggled in all three meetings against Chelsea last season, so they may have their hands full on Sunday.
Chelsea begin a new era under former Manchester City assistant and Leicester manager Enzo Maresca, but after a disappointing preseason tour, things may not be getting off to a flying start. Once against the Blues have spent an obscene amount of money trying to bolster their squad, but they don't look like the title contenders they were hoping to be at the current moment.
Let's dive into my Chelsea vs Man City prediction.
Chelsea vs Man City Prediction
| Chelsea Odds | +265 |
| Man City Odds | -105 |
| Draw | +285 |
| Over / Under | 3.5 +135 / -170 |
Chelsea Picks
Chelsea's new tactical system under Enzo Maresca is going to take some time to reach its full potential. Maresca at Leicester dominated the Championship with his possession-based style, but it remains to be seen if that style is going to translate to the top end of the Premier League. His system is reliant on building out of the back, inverting fullbacks and using a lot of short passes to play through an opponents press.
So far in preseason in matches against Celtic and Manchester City, the Blues have made countless mistakes building out of the back, which has led to easy goals for their opponents.
Com 5 minutos de jogo, o Chelsea já estava perdendo por 2x0 para o City.
2 gols de Haaland.
Olha esse time do Chelsea… bilhões investidos e é isso aí
pic.twitter.com/iGKVyXQcMy— Sala12 (@OficialSala12) August 3, 2024
The reason Chelsea played so well against Manchester City and other big six opponents last season was their ability to defend in a passive defensive block and then hit teams in transition. They did it numerous times to Manchester City, but Maresca is not going to have them set up in that manner against City.
Maresca deploys a very aggressive mid-block and is always looking to press opponents high, which is going to leave Chelsea very vulnerable to begin the season, which is why Manchester City put four goals on them in a preseason friendly. They've spent an absurd amount of money and still have yet to find a true striker that can give them stable production in front of goal. As good as Cole Palmer is, he's not a striker, so Chelsea are in a worse spot going into this season than they were towards the end of last season.
Man City Picks
Pep Guardiola's team is the most difficult team to play in the world, not just because they have the best players, but their in possession tactics are too good. Chelsea found out in the preseason match if you try to press City high, they will either pass the ball right through you and create a high quality chance or they will send the ball long up to Haaland, who is an elite hold up striker.
The other option against Manchester City is to sit in a low defensive block and try to prevent high quality chances. The problem with doing that is it's exhausting defending in your own final third for 70% of the match and eventually City will always find a way through. They played a lot of backups in the Community Shield match against Manchester United and really struggled to play through the middle, only creating 0.55 xG for the match. With a full strength lineup on Sunday, you will see them be more effective at playing through Chelsea's defense.
The issues that City have run into over the last year is they are vulnerable against teams that can hit them in transition. They finished last Premier League season ninth in PPDA and 11th in opponent build up completion percentage allowed, which led to more teams creating better chances when they broke the first line of pressure. City allowed 0.95 xG per 90 minutes last season, which is a steady increase from the 0.65 xG per 90 minutes they allowed three seasons ago. So, Chelsea may be able to create some chances against them.
Chelsea vs Man City
Prediction
If Chelsea were still under the management of Maurico Pochettino, they would be live underdogs in this match given how well he had them set up defensively in their three encounters with City last year. I am not sold Enzo Maresca is the right manager for the Chelsea and his tactics are very similar to Pep after spending a year under him at Manchester City.
Chelsea are not good enough with their build up and is too aggressive with their pressing to truly cause City a lot of problems, so I think we're are headed for a pretty comfortable win for Manchester City.
