Chelsea vs Man United Odds
| Chelsea Odds | -110 |
| Man United Odds | +260 |
| Draw | +310 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -278 / +200 |
One of the most important fixtures of the midweek slate of Premier League action comes right at the end, as Chelsea and Man United clash in London.
United is desperate for points as they are currently on the outside looking in at Champions League football in the upcoming season, while Chelsea are just looking to build any success out of this putrid campaign.
Read on to see our experts' analysis of the Chelsea vs Man United fixture.
Chelsea
Anthony Dabbundo: The Blues will be getting some positive injury news ahead of this match — right back Malo Gusto, goalkeeper Robert Sanchez and center back Trevoh Chalobah all returned to training and are available for selection ahead of this match. The Blues are at their best as a team when given space to run into, and when able to attack in transition.
The Blues are facing a Manchester United defense that likes to press high out of possession to force high turnvoers but also offers a ton of space in behind the first line of that press and in front of the back four. Chelsea are well-equipped to get the ball to their best playmakers in space — most notably Conor Gallagher, Cole Palmer and Raheem Sterling. Palmer has 13 goals and eight assists in his first season with the Blues, Gallagher has really developed his all-around midfield game this year and while Sterling’s finishing has been poor, he remains as dangerous as any hybrid forward in the league when given time and space on the ball to run at defenders.
When Nicolas Jackson has been on the pitch, the striker is also giving them high quality forward production. He averages 0.64 xG per 90 minutes, which ranks in the top five amongst PL forwards with enough minutes to qualify. He’s only behind Erling Haaland, Alexander Isak, Darwin Nunez and Mo Salah. He only has nine goals in 21 90s, but the shot volume and quality has been impressive and now he faces a bottom five defense in xG allowed per match.
The Blues have created the second-most big scoring chances in the entire Premier League, and Jackson is a major reason why. They only rank 11th in total shots taken, which shows one of their key weaknesses. When teams defend with numbers behind the ball, Chelsea struggles to operate in tight space and manufacture big chances. Manchester United don't usually defend this way, and the Red Devils will feel confident about their abilities to exploit an inconsistent Chelsea defense at the other end.
The Blues struggle to stop crosses from wide areas, rank just eighth in xGA per match and are league average at preventing box entries.
Man United
BJ Cunningham: What Brentford showed on Saturday is truly how bad this Manchester United defense is and how anybody can create a boat load of chances against them.
It all stems from is how flawed United are out of possession. Erik Ten Hag wants his team to press high, but he’s so worried that his back line will get exposed that the fullbacks don’t come and aid in the press. That means that in build up teams are constantly finding easy outlet balls out wide and have acres of space to run at Manchester United’s backline.
Brentford did this time and time again and Ten Hag never made any adjustments. Brentford created 3.2 expected goals, taking 31 shots and having 85 touches in the penalty area, which is the most in a Premier League match in the last five years.
Despite Chelsea’s lack of results, they are a top five team in expected goals, they have created the second-most big scoring chances and they are so much better playing in transition than building out of the back, which is what this match is likely to become since Manchester United have zero game control at the moment.
However, I do not trust Chelsea’s defense that has constantly been exploited in transition and just gave up 18 shots to Burnley, who were playing down a man for the entire second half.
Chelsea vs Manchester United
Tactical Analysis
John Olsen: As part of my research for this section, I reviewed some footage from Manchester United’s 2-1 win over Chelsea at Old Trafford in December.
I really wish I hadn’t.
That game was loitered with technical errors, strategic flaws and naive decision-making. Calling it a tough watch would be kind. And this iteration of one of England’s great modern rivalries likely won’t be much different. Well, for the most part.
Chelsea, also known as The Cole Palmer Show, have undergone one significant tactical development since these sides last met — shifting from a 4-1-2-3 build-up shape to a 3-2-2-3. Enzo Fernández now stays deeper — in a double pivot with Moises Caicedo — while Malo Gusto pushes forward down the right.
Significantly, in the context of this contest, this will make Erik ten Hag’s side slightly less comfortable out of possession. United’s standard pressing shape is a 4-2-3-1, which matched up well with Chelsea’s previous alignment, but not as much with the current one.
Ten Hag is likely to turn to a 4-1-4-1, which means whoever starts as United’s No. 6, likely Casemiro, will be responsible for covering both Conor Gallagher and Palmer between the lines. That’s not an easy gig.
The Red Devils’ forwards don’t always do the best job of blocking forward passing angles, so there could be a lot of opportunities for Chelsea’s “interiors,” particularly Palmer, to receive, turn and run at United’s back line.
Not much else will change from these two teams’ last clash — besides the location, which favors Chelsea slightly. Both will press and look to exploit high turnovers, plus any attacking transitions that come about.
Manchester United having a midfield pairing of Casemiro and 18-year-old Kobbie Mainoo is a massive upgrade on Sofyan Amrabat and Scott McTominay, but much of ten Hag’s build-up philosophy still puts an unnecessary emphasis on high-risk off-ball movements and passing patterns. Nevertheless, if the visitors are going to get a result, they will have to capitalize on the vertical threat of Marcus Rashford and Rasmus Højlund.
In a game between two teams that generally lack the appropriate level of technical and tactical detailing, whichever side makes fewer mistakes should take the points.
Chelsea vs Man United
Prediction
Betting market analysis, pick recommendation and strike prices to operationalize the strength of your conviction.
Cunningham: With this match likely going to be very back and forth, it’s really going to favor Chelsea who have the pace to put a lot of pressure on Manchester United’s back line.
Despite them continuing to not get results, Chelsea still has created 12.1 expected goals in their last six Premier League matches, while Manchester United have allowed 13.5 expected goals over that same time frame.
I have Chelsea projected for 2.31 goals so I like the value on the Blues' team total.
Pick: Chelsea Team Total Over 1.5 (-160 via Caesars)
Dabbundo: All signs point to this match being back and forth, with both midfields easily played through and plenty of attacking talent given space to operate and create chances. The first meeting between these two sides in Manchester saw 5.6 total expected goals. United forced a bunch of high turnovers and constantly threatened from them, while Chelsea were also able to create chances in transition once they broke through United’s pressure.
The Red Devils are conceding 20+ shots in almost every match, and they are fresh off allowing three expected goals and the most touches in the box of any PL team in multiple seasons at Brentford on Saturday. The United attack remains potent in transition given their talent, and both teams are most comfortable playing an entertaining style that will feature goals. I’d bet over 3.5 at -110 or better.
Pick (Over 3.5, -110 or better)
