Chelsea vs Middlesbrough Odds
| Chelsea Odds | -450 |
| Middlesbrough Odds | +1000 |
| Draw | +600 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -250 / +187 |
Chelsea host Middlesbrough in the second leg of the Carabao Cup semifinals, looking to overcome a one goal deficit.
They lost 1-0 at Middlesbrough in the first leg in another typical performance where they create a bunch of chances but couldn't find the back of the net. The Blues are well behind the race for the top four, so a League Cup title and a place in the Europa Conference League would be beneficial for the club's trajectory.
Middlesbrough are sitting in the middle of the Championship table, but only a few points out of a playoff spot. They last played in a European competition in 2006, so it would be a massive accomplishment for them to get into the League Cup final with a shot at the Conference League.
Here is my Chelsea vs Middlesbrough pick.
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Chelsea
Chelsea dominated the first leg on xG, but it was mainly because Middlesbrough scored in the 37th minute and then sat in a low block, daring Chelsea to break them down, and they couldn’t do it.
Middlesbrough 1 : 0 Chelsea
▪ xG: 0.61 – 2.48
▪ xThreat: 0.67 – 1.61
▪ Possession: 29.3% – 70.7%
▪ Field Tilt: 14.8% – 85.2%
▪ Def Action Height: 41.0 – 60.5 pic.twitter.com/TjD51hj0HB— markstats bot (@markstatsbot) January 9, 2024
Here is the problem that has existed with Chelsea for a long time: Mauricio Pochettino’s tactics. Chelsea have switched their build up from a 3-1-6 to a 3-2-5 because the 3-1-6 was getting too disjointed in the final third. However, the idea of the 3-2-5 build up is to not only to overload the last line of the defense, but also allow the freedom of the two attacking midfielders to help aid in build up. That is not happening at Chelsea because the two midfielders are way too far apart from the last line of five, which makes it difficult to consistently play through low blocks. Just take a look at the pass map in the tweet above. Chelsea weren't able to play anything through the middle of the pitch.
There is also a problem with how some of their players are being used – more specifically Enzo Fernandez. Fernandez is naturally a No. 8 who is an elite ball winner and deep lying playmaker in build up, but for some reason Pochettino is playing him high as a No. 10 playmaker, which is not his strong suit. That is another reason why Chelsea haven’t been as great in build up because their best midfielder is up in the last line of five rather than receiving the ball from the center backs.
Middlesbrough
Once Middlesbrough got the first goal, they sat in a low defensive block and was able to see out the 1-0 victory. However, that is not typically the way they want to play.
Former Manchester United legend Michael Carrick has been in charge of the club for two years now and has transformed them into a force in the Championship. They are currently sitting with a +14.3 xGD, which is fifth-best in the second division because of how good they are defensively. What makes them so good is the tactical flexibility out of possession. Middlesbrough are around the average in the Championship for both PPDA and high turnovers, but also are one of the better teams at preventing opponents from getting into their penalty area. They can press high and cause problems here is they want to, but the tactical plan for Middlesbrough is likely going to be the same. They are going to sit in a low block and dare Chelsea to break them down since they have a one goal advantage. They’ve been a solid defensive team in the Championship, allowing only 1.04 npxG per 90 minutes.
Middlesbrough are also a really good team when they are in possession as well. Michael Carrick has them playing in a 4-2-3-1 formation, but it’s incredibly fluid, especially on build up play. Middlesbrough will typically push a full back high when they start building out of the back, which creates a 3-2-5 build up shape. That allows them to create overloads against the last line of defense. They also have shown the ability both in the FA Cup against Aston Villa and in the first leg against Chelsea to be dangerous in direct counterattacking situations, so they are set up well here to play with a lead.
Chelsea vs Middlesbrough
Prediction
Chelsea may be putting up crazy good underlying offensive numbers, but they are a tactically flawed team. Tactically flawed teams tend to struggle when they have to play low blocks because they aren't cohesive enough in the final third to create consistent chances.
Chelsea are also going to be missing some of their key personnel in this match. Nicolas Jackson is away at the Africa Cup of Nations and Christopher Nkunku is doubtful, which means they are going to have to start Amrando Broja up. He has only been a 0.47 xG per 90 minute striker in his five matches.
Middlesbrough are going to sit in a low defensive block and dare Chelsea to break them down, which is something Chelsea have struggled to do this season.
With all of the tactical problems with Chelsea, I don’t see how they get to three goals. Plus, if they go up 2-0 they are going to try and shut the match down, so I like the value on Chelsea's team total under 2.5 goals at -117.
