Chelsea vs Newcastle Odds
Chelsea Odds | +230 |
Newcastle Odds | +1110 |
| Draw | +275 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-150 / +120) |
| Both Teams to Score (Yes/No) | (-175 / +125) |
| Odds via bet365. Get the latest soccer odds here | |
Chelsea and Newcastle meet for the final match of the season at Stamford Bridge
It's bleak times for Chelsea, who are going to finish the season in their lowest spot in the table since the 1995-96 season. The Blues have a huge summer coming up with the appointment of Mauricio Pochettino and the amount of transfers coming in and out of the club. It's really hard to see them getting up for this match with their minds more focused on the beach than on getting all three points against Newcastle.
Newcastle have secured a top four spot for the first time since 2003 after their draw with Leicester City on Monday. It's been a historic turnaround for Eddie Howe's side, who were in the relegation zone for a large majority of last season. Technically this match means nothing to Newcastle, but Howe has already came out and said that they want to finish the season strong, so I don't think you'll see an entirely rotated squad from the Magpies.
Chelsea Ready to End Abysmal Season
Since Frank Lampard has taken over at Chelsea, the Blues have picked up just four points in his eight Premier League matches in charge and have a -2.6 xGD. Here is the problem with Lampard and why he’s been such a bad manager. He tries to implement a 4-5-1 out of possession passive press that has continually not worked, especially against elite sides that can play through pressure with ease.
You combine that with the fact that he’s in charge of a team that doesn’t care and doesn’t have the desire to press with intensity, and you get a really bad mixture that has plummeted Chelsea into the bottom half of the Premier League table.
Over the second half of the season – whether it was under Graham Potter or Frank Lampard – Chelsea have consistently been bullied by the elite teams in England, especially when they try to play out of the back. Since we returned from the World Cup break, Chelsea have a -6.8 xGD in six matches.
The match against Manchester United on Thursday was a perfect example how little the Chelsea players care about this season. They conceded 5.4 xG to Manchester United, which is the most in a Premier League match since they started tracking expected goals in 2014. That's how bad Chelsea's defense is currently and they are supposed to stop one of the best offenses in England? Please.
Newcastle Showcasing High Quality Side
Newcastle absolutely bully teams that try to play out of the back. They’ve done it recently to Arsenal and Brighton and are top five in the Premier League in PPDA, opponent build up completion percentage allowed and high turnovers.
The reason why they are so good is because not only can they bully teams that like to build out of the back, but when teams are forced to play the ball long because they don't want to try to play through Newcastle's press, they make the match very transitional. Newcastle are the best transitional team in the Premier League so they are a brute to play against.
Since the 2-0 loss to Manchester City, they’ve scored 32 goals and created 32.1 xG in those matches. Alexander Isak has transformed this Newcastle attack because he is a striker that doesn’t have a weakness and can receive the ball and finish from almost any angle. It has given Newcastle versatility in their attack and also has created space for all of their other attackers. Isak has now scored seven goals in his last 10 matches and will be a pain for Leeds to deal with.
They completely dismantled Chelsea right before the World Cup break, beating them 1-0 and only allowing the Blues to have five shots and 0.3 xG despite letting Chelsea have 51% possession.
Chelsea vs Newcastle Pick
Both teams are currently on the beach with Newcastle securing a Champions League spot for next season, so now it comes down to who cares about this match more? For me, it has to be Newcastle with the exodus of the number of players that are leaving Chelsea this summer along with it being yet another match under incompetent Frank Lampard.
It all comes down to motivation here for both teams, but even if both sides aren’t motivated, it’s a short week for Chelsea and Newcastle have been +0.88 xG better than them this season, so I like the value on Newcastle draw no bet.
