Chelsea vs. West Ham United Odds
Chelsea Odds | +120 |
West Ham Odds | +240 |
| Draw | +220 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (+120 / -146) |
| Both Teams to Score (Yes/No) | (-112 / -112) |
| Odds via FanDuel. Get the latest soccer odds here. | |
Another week brings another London derby for Chelsea, who will play their fourth match against a London club in the last five matches on Saturday when the Blues travel to East London to take on West Ham.
The Blues took just four points from nine available in a match against Crystal Palace and two against Fulham. It won't be any easier for them on the road against a team desperate for points.
David Moyes' seat as manager is becoming hotter, but a win against Everton and draw at Newcastle appears to have saved him for now. The Hammers have played way below their talent level this season and the market knows that this team isn't really the 17th-best in the Premier League.
Both attacks have struggled for goals in the last few months and the market has adjusted this total downward to 2.25. That presents a good buy low opportunity for both attacks, whose underlying numbers have shown signs of life as of late.
Chelsea Showing Signs of Improvement
Chelsea's struggles are one of the main storylines in the Premier League, but the underlying numbers are starting to improve for the Blues under Graham Potter. Chelsea have won the xG battle and earned more chances created in four consecutive games, even though the Blues have only won one of the matches. Chelsea have totaled 6.5 xG in those four matches, including 1.6 at Anfield and 2.1 at Fulham while playing down a man for 30 minutes.
Most notably, Chelsea will have João Felix back in the lineup as he returns from red card suspension. Felix totaled 0.8 xG and six shots in his 60-minute debut for the Blues and should provide an upgrade over Kai Havertz — who has struggled for finishing in the last month.
Chelsea also have Reece James back in the starting XI. Based on the attacking output splits with him on and off the pitch, you could make the case he's Chelsea's most important attacking player with his ball progression and shot production when he does get the ball or his body into the penalty area.
There's a lot of new pieces competing for time and places looking to make an impression right now for Chelsea. Enzo Fernandes looks like a solid add and one that frees up Conor Gallagher to add more going forward. The underlying process for the Blues suggests that goals are absolutely coming in the future.
As good as West Ham are defending their penalty area, the market has soured too far on Chelsea's attack.
West Ham Facing Massive Regression Expectation
Based on just the most basic xG vs. goals analysis, West Ham have been the most unfortunate finishing attack in the entire league. No team has underperformed more than them and that alone is a reason to look to buy on them from a market perspective.
The Hammers have produced 26.2 xG this year – right around league average – and they've scored 18 goals from those chances.
There's no guarantee that the positive regression will come on Saturday, but in the long run, teams will usually regress back toward their finishing means. The Hammers will have more available minutes from new signing Danny Ings and they may have Gianluca Scamacca available off the bench for this one as well.
The attack was already trending up prior to that anyway. It's a group that has produced at least 1 xG in seven consecutive league matches. They're the least efficient team in the entire league at turning final third possession into box entries and to me that suggests that the attack isn't clicking.
More progressive passes into the final third usually means that more chances are coming in the future. The Hammers are 10th in field tilt, eighth in shots per match and yet are priced as a much worse attack.
Chelsea vs. West Ham Pick
When these two sides met in the sixth matchweek, the total was juiced to the over at 2.5. It was clear by then that Chelsea had some attacking issues and the Blues were an overvalued favorite as a -1 spread favorite at home. There was a controversial call that cost West Ham a late equalizer in that match too in an eventual 2-1 defeat.
Now the total has dropped all the way to 2.25, a sign that the market has reached the floor on Chelsea as an attack. Chelsea's defense is far from elite and both attacks have positive regression coming based on underlying numbers.
It's time to buy the over on both clubs and expect goals. Even though goals are way down post-World Cup, it's more a matter of variance in finishing than a true decline in chance creation.
