Chile vs Argentina Preview | Chile – Argentina Picks & Predictions

Chile vs Argentina Odds, Chile – Argentina Picks

Lionel Messi will celebrate his 37th birthday by trying to help Argentina to back-to-back victories to begin their Copa America title defense on Tuesday in their clash against Chile, a rematch of the 2016 final.

Even the venue is the same — the Meadowlands in East Rutherford, N.J. — as it was on the night eight years ago when Messi missed from the spot and Chile eventually triumphed on penalties following a 0-0 draw.

But this version of Argentina is more well-rounded, and this version of Chile isn't nearly as strong as the 2016 side. So it's the Albiceleste who come in as heavy favorites to reach six points and all but guarantee their place in the quarterfinals.

These sides last met in January of 2022 in World Cup qualifying, with already-qualified Argentina securing a 2-1 away victory.

Here is my Chile vs Argentina preview.

Chile Picks

Chile settled for a 0-0 draw against Peru to open group play in what will be a strong contender for ugliest match of the tournament.

Alexis Sanchez flubbed his lines on a 16th minute chance, sending his effort skyward with only six yards between himself and the goal. That chance was worth 0.57 expected goals, according to FotMob, while the rest of Chile's efforts on goal combined for only a 0.45 xG value against a Peru side that was content to bunker and counter.

Somewhat puzzlingly, Sheffield United winter loan signing Ben Brereton Diaz did not make Ricardo Gareca's starting XI, instead coming on for Eduardo Vargas in the 68th minute.

But after Gareca took over the program in January following a woeful start to 2026 World Cup Qualifying, the Argentine has every right to shake up an attack that has scored only three times in its first six qualifying matches.

Argentina Picks

While Messi contributed an assist in Argentina's 2-0 win over Canada to open the tournament, the best news was that both of center forwards most likely to be playing in front of him began their tournaments with a goal.

First it was Julian Alvarez's turn just after halftime, when he finished into an empty goal after Alexis Mac Allister sacrificed his body to reach a diagonal ball just in front of Canada goalkeeper Maxime Crepeau. Then inside the final 10 minutes, Messi threaded the through ball and Martinez timed his run before slotting past Crepeau.

Although it was a closer match than some may have expected, it was actually one of the best opener  in Argentina's recent major tournament history. It was the first time the Albiceleste had won and kept a clean sheet on match day 1 since a 1-0 win over Nigeria in the 2010 World Cup.

While Messi played his typical 90 minutes, longtime sidekick Angel Di Maria came off in the 68th and is reportedly headed for Lionel Scaloni's substitutes bench for the upcoming match.

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Chile vs Argentina

Prediction

All the recent trends and form suggest the most sensible wager here is Argentina to win while keeping a clean sheet. But the series history between these teams is wild.

Chile have scored in eight of the past 12 previous meetings against their border rival. They also haven't won any of them, and none of them have seen more than three total goals scored.

I believe that track record matters in international competition to an extent, and it will keep me from wagering directly on Argentina keeping a clean sheet. But Chile's attacking dysfunction still informs my believe that there's value in tying an Argentina victory to an under.

For all the Albiceleste's firepower, they almost never secure 90 minute wins in truly high scoring affairs. In fact, in their last 14 competitive fixtures dating back to the start of the 2022 World Cup, they've won 10 games in 90 minutes. All 10 victories have come in under that total.

So I feel comfortable playing it at even money and maybe a little below given this is an eminently winnable game, and not a tournament opener.

Pick: Argentina ML and under 3.5 (+100 via BetMGM)

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