Copa America Best Bets: Argentina vs Peru, Canada vs Chile

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Argentina have won Group A barring a loss and a Canada blow out win over Chile, so they technically have something to play for. What Argentina showed against Chile is how good they are at controlling matches. Chile did not take a shot until well into the second half and ended up with just 0.1 xG.

Argentina have been building up in a 3-1-6 structure and have done a great job of overloading the center of the pitch to use short quick passing to play through both Chile and Canada's 4-4-2 defensive structure. They also have been punishing team in transition, which is honestly where their biggest chances have come from. So far through two matches, Argentina have created 5.6 expected goals, but what is really impressive has been their defense.

Canada and France are the only two teams since the beginning of the 2022 World Cup to create over one expected goal against them. In fact, they have only allowed 6.7 expected goals in their 15 non-friendly matches. They faced Peru in World Cup Qualifying in late 2023 with Peru only able to muster five total shots and 0.64 xG.

Peru are one of the worst offensive teams in this tournament because they primarily rely on direct counterattacking opportunities to create their chances, but have zero talent to finish off those attacks. They are yet to score in this tournament and scored just one goal and averaged 0.43 xG per 90 minutes during World Cup Qualifying in 2023.

I have Argentina to win nil projected at -179, so I love the value on the current line of +100

Pick: Argentina to win nil (+100 via bet365)