Here's everything you need to know for my Copa America best bets for Argentina vs Peru and Canada vs Chile.
BJ Cunningham is here to take you through the upcoming matches and offer up his expert picks. Cunningham is part of the Wondergoal podcast crew that will be guiding you through both the Euros and Copa America giving his favorite picks.
If you'd like to see picks from Cunningham during the season for both the Euros and Copa America, follow them in the Action Network App.
If you'd like to see our projections for both tournaments, you can find them here.
Here are Cunningham's Copa America best bets.
Copa America Best Bets
| Argentina Odds | -209 |
| Peru Odds | +650 |
| Draw | +320 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 +120 / -150 |
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Argentina have won Group A barring a loss and a Canada blow out win over Chile, so they technically have something to play for. What Argentina showed against Chile is how good they are at controlling matches. Chile did not take a shot until well into the second half and ended up with just 0.1 xG.
Argentina have been building up in a 3-1-6 structure and have done a great job of overloading the center of the pitch to use short quick passing to play through both Chile and Canada's 4-4-2 defensive structure. They also have been punishing team in transition, which is honestly where their biggest chances have come from. So far through two matches, Argentina have created 5.6 expected goals, but what is really impressive has been their defense.
Canada and France are the only two teams since the beginning of the 2022 World Cup to create over one expected goal against them. In fact, they have only allowed 6.7 expected goals in their 15 non-friendly matches. They faced Peru in World Cup Qualifying in late 2023 with Peru only able to muster five total shots and 0.64 xG.
Peru are one of the worst offensive teams in this tournament because they primarily rely on direct counterattacking opportunities to create their chances, but have zero talent to finish off those attacks. They are yet to score in this tournament and scored just one goal and averaged 0.43 xG per 90 minutes during World Cup Qualifying in 2023.
I have Argentina to win nil projected at -179, so I love the value on the current line of +100
Pick: Argentina to win nil (+100 via bet365)
| Canada Odds | +230 |
| Chile Odds | +125 |
| Draw | +230 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 +120 / -150 |
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The situation is simple for Canada, all they need is a draw and they are through to the knockout stage. So, that means they are going to come out with a little more passive approach, which is against Jesse Marsch's nature. In any case, they are set up in a good 4-4-2 to stop a Chile offense that is quite frankly terrible once they reach the final third.
Coming into the tournament, Chile ranked first during World Cup Qualifying in progressive passes and passes completed into the final third, but so far this tournament they have 26 penalty box touches and have only created 1.1 expected goals.
The other problem with Chile is they are a team that can get exposed in transition. During South American qualifying, they allowed the most counterattacking shots per 90 minutes of anyone. They like to press in a very narrow structure, which leaves space on the wings, which is exactly where Canada can punish you with the likes of Alphonso Davies and Tajon Buchanan.
Chile are getting overvalued because they have to win this match and Canada just need a draw, but they have not proven throughout World Cup Qualifying and this tournament that they are deserving of being a favorite against teams at their level. Quite frankly Canada have a ton more talent than Chile, so I really like the value on them +0.5 at -141.
Pick: Canada +0.5 (-141 via BetRivers)
