Here's everything you need to know for my Copa America best bets for Colombia vs Paraguay & Brazil vs Costa Rica
BJ Cunningham is here to take you through the upcoming matches and offer up his expert picks. Cunningham is part of the Wondergoal podcast crew that will be guiding you through both the Euros and Copa America giving his favorite picks.
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If you'd like to see our projections for both tournaments, you can find them here.
Here are Cunningham's Copa America best bets.
Copa America Best Bets
| Colombia Odds | -154 |
| Paraguay Odds | +475 |
| Draw | +260 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 +120 / -154 |
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As Colombia showed in their 5-1 win against the United States, if you are not ready for their high intensity press, they will punish you.
They are the most aggressive out of possession team in South America, as they are always looking to get into an up and down type of match. When they lose the ball in the opponent's final third they are always looking to counterpress to try and win the ball back quickly.
There is talent littered all over this squad, especially in their attack with the likes of Luis Diaz, Jhon Duran and even James Rodriguez, who still plays a very important role for the national team.
They were really good offensively during World Cup Qualifying, averaging the most shots, creating the second-most expected goals and posting the best long ball completion rate, which is a really encouraging sign for a team that is primarily transition based.
Paraguay come into this tournament having scored one goal in World Cup Qualifying and playing the lowest event type of matches of anyone in South America. They did underperform and average 0.91 xG per 90 minutes, but there is an existential problem with their offense, which comes down to them settling for low quality chances.
They averaged 11.5 shots per 90 minutes in qualifying, which was more than Argentina, Brazil and Uruguay. But, their average shot distance was 20.8 yards and their xG per shot was 0.08, which is incredibly low. This isn’t a recent problem for Paraguay either. Since September of 2021, they have created 12.9 expected goals in 18 matches, which is by far the lowest in South America during that time frame.
They played Colombia in a World Cup Qualifier in late 2023, losing 1-0 and getting dominated on xG 0.70 to 2.49.
So, I like Colombia to dominate Paraguay again and like the price on their moneyline of -135.
Pick: Colombia ML (-135 via DraftKings)
| Brazil Odds | -700 |
| Costa Rica Odds | +1800 |
| Draw | +700 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -211 / +160 |
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Brazil's World Cup Qualifying results in last 2023 were a complete disaster, but I think this is one of the rare instances that you can throw them out the window.
Fernando Diniz was in charge for those six World Cup Qualifying matches and he’s one of the more interesting tactical managers in the world. He is a big believer in relationism, as opposed to positionalism. Relationism is a tactical philosophy in football that focuses on the relationships between players, space and the ball. It's also known as functional play or "pass and move". In a sense, positions don’t matter, it’s all about getting as many players close to the ball so you can always have an overload through every phase of build up.
Now under Dorival Júnior, they are playing a much more direct style, as Júnior himself said he’s more from the Carlo Ancelotti school of adaptation rather than being a tactician, which fits this Brazil team incredibly well because with the elite level talent they have, being adaptable and giving players freedom on the pitch is the most optimal approach for Brazil.
Costa Rica got past Honduras in the final qualification playoff to get here, but they are incredibly outmatched here. They are a very passive, direct team and the talent level is severely below that of Brazil.
We watched them play two of the world's elite teams at the World Cup in Germany and Spain. They conceded a combined 11 goals and 9.3 expected goals in those two matches. The second Brazil get them into a negative game state, this thing is going to snowball just like those two matches did.
I have Brazil's spread projected at -2.52, so I like the value on their spread of -2.5 at +115.
Pick: Brazil -2.5 (+115 via bet365)
