Few players in sports have the ability to move lines/odds like Leo Messi does, and we saw that on display the last several days around the betting market.
The first leg of the Copa del Rey semifinal is another El Clasico between Barcelona and Real Madrid, set for 3 p.m. ET on Wednesday, February 6th, leaving just three days for Messi to get healthy.
He was injured in Saturday's La Liga match against Valencia despite playing the full 90 minutes, and the details of his injury haven't been disclosed.
Odds for the first leg of the semifinal opened as high as Barcelona -150, but once there was concern about Messi's status after missing Monday's practice, they dipped all the way down to -115/-120. Real Madrid had been offered as high as +425 on the opener, but were down to +300 upon the Messi news.
There was some speculation that he was closer to doubtful than questionable, especially considering Barcelona used Messi sparingly throughout the tournament and have huge Champions League games against Lyon in the coming weeks.
But then Tuesday rolled around and Messi was seen participating in practice with plenty of smiles, and was named in the squad list against Real Madrid. This doesn't necessarily indicate that he'll start, but his inclusion shows he'll at least be able to play in some capacity.
Following the good news on Messi's status, odds on Barcelona shot back up to -135/-140. There's still a bit of wiggle room for sportsbooks since it's unclear if he'll play the full 90 minutes, and the market will need to be on its toes at all times.
If he's named in the starting lineup on Wednesday, Barcelona's odds could easily rise above -150, but if he's on the bench they could sink back to the -110 range.
Either way, Barcelona head into the semifinals as favorites to lift the trophy. Here are the latest odds to win the Copa del Rey:
- Barcelona +110
- Real Madrid +175
- Valencia +600
- Real Betis +800
Odds to advance to the final:
Barcelona (-145) vs. Real Madrid (+125)
Valencia (-135) vs. Real Betis (+115)
In the other semifinal which starts on Thursday at 3 p.m. ET, Real Betis are slight home favorites in the opening leg against Valencia. That should be a very competitive matchup, and Valencia actually have the edge to advance at -120 odds (Real Betis +110).
The return legs will be played on February 27th at 3 p.m. ET (Barcelona at Real Madrid) and February 28th at 3 p.m. ET(Real Betis at Valencia).
