Croatia vs. Brazil Odds
| Croatia Odds | +700 |
| Brazil Odds | -250 |
| Draw | +375 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-110 / -110) |
| Both Teams to Score (Yes/No) | (+105 / -143) |
| Odds via bet365. Get the latest World Cup odds here. | |
In the opening match of the World Cup quarterfinals, Brazil challenge Croatia to earn the right to be one of the four remaining nations.
The Samba Kings cruised past South Korea in the Round of 16 with a resounding 4-1 victory, which followed the South American side winning Group G.
Meanwhile, the Blazers find themselves back in the knockout rounds after the run to the semifinals in 2018, outlasting Japan on penalty kicks in the previous game.
Brazil enter this crucial match as the heavy favorite, and I’m expecting them to get the result here. However, there is a better way to back the CONMEBOL country than on the moneyline.
Let's get into it.
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Croatia Beating Expectations Once Again
Even with the departing players from the last tournament and stars reaching older ages, Croatia are once again on a deep run at the World Cup.
The Blazers were able to escape Group F by finishing second, claiming more points than Canada and Belgium with a win and two draws. They followed that up by beating Japan on penalties in the round of 16.
Across their four games, Croatia only hold a +0.19 xGDiff and a 1.25 xG per 90 minutes average. However, these numbers plummet to -1.98 and 0.79 xG per game if you remove the match against the Canadians.
This will definitely be their toughest test yet, but this veteran squad knows how to get results in the biggest moments.
Brazil Looking Like a Scary Side
In international competitions like this, it can take a few games for the sides to gel and for the superstars to hit their stride. Well, I believe the victory over South Korea was a sign that Brazil may now be firing on all cylinders.
The Seleção Canarinho generated 3.6 xG and seven big scoring chances, according to fotmob.com, in a match where they scored four goals in under 36 minutes.
It was also another dazzling display from Richarlison, who found the back of the net for the third time in this tournament. The Tottenham Hotspur striker leads Brazil in goals and is pushing for a chance to claim the Golden Boot.
Once you add in Neymar and Vinícius Júnior beside him on the wings, this is truly one of the best attacks in the world, which is why Brazil have been considered the favorite to win the competition.
Croatia vs. Brazil Pick
As you would expect, bet365 has Brazil listed as the heavy favorite on the moneyline (-275) and to advance (-600), while the total is set at 2.5 goals. There is no way I can back the South American side at those prices, but there is value in another market.
My best bet is a Single-Game Parlay, pairing a Brazil victory with the total flying over two goals at +115 odds.
The Samba Kings have been creating loads of chances in this tournament, averaging 2.38 xG and 3.75 big-scoring chances a game. This is also the same team that has seen only 3-of-12 games this calendar year finish with less than a pair of goals.
Meanwhile, I struggle to see Croatia being able to keep up with the pace of this Brazil side, especially after the performance against a top offensive side in Belgium. In that group stage match, the Belgians generated 3.07 xG and five big chances.
Brazil have forwards who can finish off those opportunities, and I think they’ll be able to do so to claim this victory here.
For a bonus play, I also like the second half to be the half with more goals at -105, but I'll stick with the SGP as my best bet.
The Pick: Single-Game Parlay – Brazil ML & Over 2 Goals (+115)
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