Croatia vs Italy Preview | Euro 2024 Predictions & Picks

Monday, June 24

3 p.m. ET

FOX

Croatia Odds	+220
Italy Odds	+135
Draw	+220
Over / Under	2.5  +102 / -124

Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

For the third and final match of Group B, Croatia will face Italy in a crucial game that could determine the Croatians' fate in the tournament. In their previous match, Croatia's performance was far from ideal; they drew 2-2 with Albania, causing fans to question whether this team is truly made up of the same players who had successful runs in the last two World Cups.

Italy, on the other hand, experienced a wake-up call after encountering arguably the most impressive team of match day 2 – Spain. Although Italy lost by just one goal, a result of yet another unfortunate own goal, Spain's dominance throughout the match could serve as a valuable lesson for Italy as they aim to secure their spot in the knockout stage.

Let’s dive into my Croatia vs Italy Preview and Euro 2024 Picks.

After finishing as runners-up in the 2018 World Cup, losing to France in the final and placing third in the 2022 World Cup after losing to the Argentine champions, one might assume Croatia’s squad knows how to handle setbacks and achieve results.

However, it appears this Croatia side is finally showing signs of aging, a bitter realization for soccer fans worldwide. Croatia have lost their status as one of the teams to beat. Despite their efforts to defy this perception, they could only manage a draw after conceding in the 95th minute. In a match characterized by high intensity and end-to-end action, Croatia dominated key metrics.

They registered 22 total shots and completed 634 passes, more than double Albania's total passes. Despite this statistical advantage, Croatia could only convert these numbers into one goal by Andrej Kramarić and an unfortunate own goal, a recurring theme in this year’s European Championship. 

Ignoring match statistics and judging solely by appearances, one would have perceived Croatia as the underdog in this encounter, especially since they did not assert dominance until the latter stages of the second half. Albania quickly took the lead in the 11th minute with an aerial cross finding Qazim Laçi's head, a strategy Italy might consider integrating into their game plan, similar to Spain's successful execution in their 3-0 victory over Croatia.

Croatia's vulnerability to aerial passes stems from several factors, including their tactical approach, player characteristics and the positioning of their defense and midfield. Croatia often position their defensive line high up the field during possession, with central defenders pushing close to midfield to facilitate smooth distribution to midfield maestros like Luka Modrić and Marcelo Brozović. While this strategy allows Croatia to dictate play and maintain possession, it leaves them exposed to rapid counterattacks and long balls that exploit gaps in their defense.

Italy are coming off a 1-0 defeat that could easily have been more severe given their significant advantage in total shots (more than five times) and shots on target (nine times as many). Throughout the match, Spain controlled the midfield, providing numerous attacking opportunities that kept Italy under constant pressure. As they approach their next match, Italy's strategy should prioritize securing a draw to secure second place in their group and advance to the knockout stage. Achieving this goal will hinge on their midfielders executing a structured and high-pressure game plan.

Italy must capitalize on Croatia's well-known defensive vulnerabilities, particularly by exploiting the space behind their defense with fast and direct players like Federico Chiesa. Italy should aim for swift and incisive counterattacks to catch the Croatian defenders off guard. Players like Jorginho and Nicolò Barella in midfield can play a crucial role in disrupting Croatia's playmakers such as Luka Modrić and Marcelo Brozović, preventing them from dictating the tempo of the game.

Italy faltered in executing these aspects in their previous match against Spain. However, facing a formidable opponent like Spain in a non-decisive match provides Italy with valuable learning opportunities that they can apply to their upcoming crucial fixture in the group stage.

Regarding how this match is likely to unfold, betting on the under seems a prudent choice, with the draw also holding some value. The strengths of both teams should cancel each other out, leaving the outcome to be determined by unpredictability and chance.

Both sides possess the ability to score goals while also being capable of restricting their opponent's chances. While this game is shaping up to be low-scoring, bettors can also take advantage of Croatia's determined approach and Italy's necessity to secure either a win or a draw.

Picks: Under 2.5 (-115 via FanDuel), Draw (+220 via DraftKings)