Crystal Palace vs. Aston Villa Odds
| Crystal Palace Odds | +150 |
| Aston Villa Odds | +185 |
| Draw | +225 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (+110 / -140) |
| Day | Time | Saturday | 10 a.m. ET |
| How To Watch | Peacock Premium |
| Odds updated as of Saturday morning via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here. | |
Crystal Palace is still without a win in the new Premier League season, but impressed in a defeat to Arsenal and draw with Liverpool.
The Eagles are now favored to win for the first time in the young campaign Saturday when they welcome Aston Villa to Selhurst Park.
The Villans had a shock away defeat at newly promoted AFC Bournemouth on the opening day, but bounced back in a 2-1 home win against Everton.
This will be a tough test for manager Steven Gerrard's side though, in part because of the excellent Palace defense that has persisted from last season..
When these sides met in the spring at Selhurst Park, the Eagles dominated the balance of the chances, but settled for a 1-1 draw.
Crystal Palace
Even though Palace was one of the most profitable teams to bet on a season ago, it struggled to create chances when trying to break down a more defensive side. Palace finished just 14th in non-penalty xG created per 90 minutes, 12th in box entries and 14th in progressive passes and dribbles.
Now without Conor Gallagher to provide those extra man runs into the box, Palace is hoping Eberechi Eze can fill that void. Though two matches, Eze has yet to complete a pass into the penalty area, but is providing some value. However, two shots in two matches probably isn't enough to help this attack replace Gallagher.
Palace remains a major positive regression candidate after finishing last season well under its xGDiff suggested it should have. The Eagles have only scored one goal in the new season from 2.4 xG overall.
By The Numbers
- 17th — Despite its excellent xG difference overall, Palace finished 17th in shots in the EPL last season.
- 3rd — The Eagles’ defense finished third in the league in preventing big scoring chances last season.
Aston Villa
Aston Villa is likely going to set up in a more defensive block that enables Palace to have the ball in its own half, then look to break quickly in its direct attack style. The Villans weren’t able to create much in the spring meeting, but remain dangerous in these situations.
The most encouraging sign for Villa is that it walked into the penalty area and dominated Everton in the final 30 to 45 minutes. For most of the match, the Villans had the lead, but never looked dangerous to add a second goal or create big scoring chances.
Gerrard has a decision to make, because bringing on Emi Buendia clearly helped the club improve in the final third of the park. One issue for Villa under Gerrard is the inefficiency of turning dangerous possession into chances. So, will Gerrard bench Phillipe Coutinho? Probably not, but he could he play them together.
That would make Villa a much dangerous attacking side, while also exposing and testing the manager’s established defensive structure.
By The Numbers
- 1.80 — Villa generated 1.8 xG in the final 30 minutes of the match against Everton, which could be an encouraging indicator.
- +0.18 — The strength of schedule hasn't been difficult, but the Villans have improved their early season xG difference per 90 minutes when compared to last campaign.
Betting Analysis & Pick
Palace was one of the most dominant EPL home teams last season and I see no reason for it not to continue to thrive at Selhurt Park.
The market suggests Villa is the better team in this game. And even though I'm bullish on these clubs, the Eagles have better metrics. For that reason, I have to bet them in what is essentially lined as a toss-up match on home soil.
The Pick: Crystal Palace — Draw No Bet (-125 or better)
