Crystal Palace vs Fulham Odds
| Crystal Palace Odds | -110 |
| Fulham Odds | +300 |
| Draw | +240 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 +100 / -125 |
Crystal Palace fell victim to the new extended stoppage time rules last weekend in the Premier League after a 1-0 lead at Aston Villa in the 86th minute became a 3-1 defeat following goals in the 98th and 101st minute. The Eagles will look to bounce back on Saturday at home in a London derby against Fulham, who had a relatively routine 1-0 victory at home against newly promoted Luton Town last weekend.
The Cottagers sit 10th in the table with two wins, a draw and two defeats in their opening five matches, but the underlying numbers once again paint an alarming picture for Marco Silva's side. They haven't improved at all defensively from what was a bottom three defense in the league last year and now will face a difficult battle to find enough goals since Aleksandar Mitrovic departed the club.
Let's get into Crystal Palace vs Fulham in this Saturday Premier League fixture.
Crystal Palace
Entering the season, I had major questions about how Palace would sustain a Premier League quality attack despite losing Willfried Zaha and potentially Michael Olise. Olise hasn’t yet played for Roy Hodgson’s side, but the Eagles have gotten significantly improved production from both Odsonne Edouard and Eberechi Eze to take their attack up a level. The defense has remained quality overall and is a top five unit through five matches, but the real story is Palace’s improvements in shot production and quality.
Eze ranks inside the top five in the league in progressive carries into the final third. He took a step forward in his underlying xG + xA numbers to 0.39 per 90 and has taken a real leap into excellent territory at 0.60 this year. His shot volume has spiked and while it’s not particularly high quality shots, his shot assists for Edouard and his ball carrying add real value to an otherwise passive Palace attacking side that doesn't commit many numbers forward.
Eduoard’s start is even more encouraging. He managed just six shots in three matches against Arsenal, Aston Villa and Brentford, but when facing worse defenses he’s totaled 14 shots in two matches against Wolves and Sheffield United. In the aggregate, Edouard sits at 0.54 xG per 90. That’s well above average striker production.
If you schedule-adjust the Eagles' attack through five matches, they've still been about 4% above-average in attack, per an analysis from Michael Caley.
Fulham
Fulham's defense is still conceding more big scoring chances than any team in the league. Even though they kept hold of Joao Palhinha on deadline day, the Cottagers rank 14th in box entries allowed and 15th in final third entries. Palace's primary issue is a lack of passing quality in the midfield, but it's not particularly hard to pass the ball or carry the ball through the Fulham midfield and into the final third.
There's not much pressing intensity (17th in PPDA and 19th in ball recoveries) to think that Fulham has a real clear path to defensive improvement. It's largely the same defensive personnel from last season, just another year older. That's especially notable because the Cottagers had the oldest average team age in the Premier League last year.
As concerning as the defense is, the attack looks short on attacking quality post-Mitrovic. Carlos Vinicius came off the bench and scored the winner against Luton Town, but he's been in the PL multiple times and never provided consistent production. Raul Jimenez has totaled eight shots and 0.5 xG in 4.1 90s thus far and looks like he's well past his PL prime now.
Tim Ream is second on Fulham on xG because of set pieces and Bobby Reid is the main talisman for the Cottagers with seven shots and 1.7 xG in four matches. That's great production in a small sample, but the 2.24 shots per 90 isn't good enough as the main striker option.
Crystal Palace vs Fulham
Pick & Prediction
The market is aware that Fulham over-performed their xG numbers wildly last year and have regression coming. I'm not sure the market has totally caught up to how much lower Fulham could go this season without Mitrovic. The system was well designed to get a ton of crosses into the box and score goals from that as a result.
Without him, you're left with a below-average attack and one of the worst defenses in the league. Palace have a proven track record as a good defensive side and the improved attack seems real to me.
Palace are as good going forward and much better defensively and at home. -110 is a bit short of a moneyline price for me.
