Crystal Palace vs Luton Town Odds
| Crystal Palace Odds | -138 |
| Luton Town Odds | +350 |
| Draw | +280 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -134 / +105 |
Crystal Palace and Luton Town will both try to respond from calamitous defeats when they meet on Saturday at Selhurst Park.
Palace led at Tottenham through the 75th minute of their second game under new boss Oliver Glasner last Saturday, only to unravel completely in the last 15 minutes of a 3-1 defeat at their London rivals.
Meanwhile, Luton battled back from an early two-goal deficit against visiting Aston Villa, only to concede again to Lucas Digne in the 89th minute of a 3-2 loss at Kenilworth Road.
Luton earned a 2-1 home win over Palace back in late November, in their first meeting of any sort in 31 years.
Here is my Crystal Palace vs Luton Town prediction.
Crystal Palace
The Eagles may feel unfortunate to have taken nothing from Tottenham after holding a late lead, but in truth their performance didn't deserve it.
Eberechi Eze's brilliant free-kick goal to put Palace in front early in the second half was worthy of winning any game. But it was also Palace's only shot in the final 77 minutes of the competition in what was statistically one of Spurs' most dominant performances of the season.
If there is something to build on in Glasner's brief tenure, it may have come in the opening half-hour of Palace's 3-0 victory over Burnley in Glasner's debut, when Palace were firmly in control of a side in a profile similar to Luton, even if the early chances weren't that dangerous. The match's remainder — including when the goals were scored — may be less informative since the Clarets played the final 55 minutes down a man.
And objectively, the best news for Palace supporters in the last couple weeks has been the return of Eze on the flank. With a goal in his first game since late January, he is one of three Eagles tied for the club lead with six in the league. All but one of Palace's league victories has come when Eze has made one of his 17 league appearances.
Luton Town
Luton have now lost five straight in all competitions — four in the league — and may have reason to feel like their survival hopes in their first top-flight season since the early 1990s are fading.
But the reality is the Hatters were always going to be heavy underdogs in the last four losses of that stretch — to Manchester United, Liverpool and Villa in the league and Manchester City in the FA Cup. And if they can shake off the emotional impact of such a run, their visit to Palace marks the first in a series of potentially winnable fixtures down the stretch.
In all, Luton will face seven foes in the bottom half of the current table in their final 12 league dates, with the last five of those coming at home. And until then, while they haven't been a great away side, they've been competent when visiting teams in their neck of the woods in the standings, taking eight points from seven away fixtures so far against that bottom half.
To do that this time, manager Rob Edwards will have to figure out how to field a competent back line. While the entire squad is dealing with a wave of injuries, it's that unit that has had it the worst, with Amari'i Bell's early exit against Villa only adding to those woes.
Crystal Palace vs Luton Town
Prediction
In a season where the over 2.5 goals wager has cashed at an unusually high rate, the price of -125 odds on that bet are eye-catching. But they obscure a closer look at the trends of both these sides.
While the standard over-the-total wager may have some slight value based on this year's track record — if not each side's xG numbers — what's more advantageous to recognize here is how these teams generally arrive at higher totals when they do so.
When Palace have played home games against bottom-half foes, the total often goes not only over 2.5 goals, but over 3.5. The same is true for pretty much all of Luton's matches, and that includes away fixtures at lower-half teams.
There are potential mitigating factors to consider of course — most notably the lingering uncertainty of how Glasner will try to play in relatively evenly matched contests, and xG numbers that suggest maybe these trends are a little overblown.
But weighing them against Luton's lack of options in defense and Eze's return for Palace and it feels worth playing aggressively, given the attractive price of +200 odds and an implied 33.3% probability. The trends suggest the ballpark of actual probability closer to at least 37-40%.
