Manchester United look to build off their win over Southampton when they travel to Selhurst Park to take on Crystal Palace.
Crystal Palace got a late penalty to draw Leicester City last weekend, but it's been a poor start to the season for Eagles. Oliver Glasner had them flying towards the end of last season, but now they have only picked up two points from their first four matches. They hammered Manchester United towards the end of last season 4-0 and will be trying to repeat that performance on Saturday.
Manchester United got things back on track by beating Southampton over the weekend. It was a much needed win after dropping back to back matches to Brighton and Liverpool. The Red Devils now sit with six points on the season, but in a very tightly contested top six race, three points from matches like this are crucial.
Ahead of Crystal Palace vs. Man United, here is my Premier League analysis.
Crystal Palace vs. Man United Odds, Picks, Prediction
| Crystal Palace Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+0.5 -155 | 2.5 -175o / +137u | +187 |
| Man United Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-0.5 +130 | 2.5 -175o / +137u | +130 |
- Crystal Palace vs. Man United moneyline odds: Crystal Palace +187, Man United +130, Draw +275
- Crystal Palace vs. Man United over/under: 2.5 goals (over -175, under +137)
- Crystal Palace vs. Man United pick: Crystal Palace – Draw No Bet
I am backing Crystal Palace in Man United vs. Crystal Palace.
Crystal Palace Preview
Crystal Palace struggled early on against Leicester and the reason for that was they weren't effective enough transitioning from their own final third. Oftentimes when they won the ball Mateta was the only outlet, which meant that Leicester could easily stop whatever transition attack they tried to spring on them. As the match went along and Crystal Palace fell behind, Oliver Glasner changed things up and went full RB Leipzig.
He transitioned the formation to a 4-2-2-2 to hit Leicester directly through the middle and it worked as Palace were able to get the eventual equalizer via a penalty. In the end, they created 2.5 expected goals, but the reality is as it stands, they are a better transition team than a build up team. Normally, you will see Crystal Palace defend out of a 5-3-2 formation looking to cut off any space through the middle of the pitch and force to teams to play from outwide. They will oftentimes leave their fullbacks 1 v 1 against the opposing winger, which isn't a bad matchup against Manchester United since they don't have great 1 v 1 dribblers.
The problems that have existed for Palace have not been defensively, but it's their inability to create high quality chances. The Eagles have the third lowest xG per shot and one of the highest percentage of shots from outside the box. With that being said when they are building out from the back and not looking to transition quickly, they are very good at getting the ball into the final third, as they have the sixth-most final third entries in the Premier League through four matches.
Man United Preview
Manchester United may have won the match 3-0, but they got hammered for the first 30 minutes against Southampton. They eventually conceded a penalty, which Cameron Archer missed and then scored five minutes later. Rashford then hit one from outside the box and suddenly everything is all good with Ten Hag's United.
What has improved for Manchester United this season is their defensive structure. No longer are they only pressing with their forwards and allowing teams to repeatedly run at them. They are now sitting in either a 4-2-4 or 4-4-2 structure and playing a little bit more passive, which in the end has been a good thing. So far through four matches they are only allowing 1.16 npxG per 90 minutes, which is a massive improvement from last season. The issues that I think United have right now are in their offensive identity.
Erik Ten Hag scrapped any hope of United controlling matches last year and turned them into a transition team, which did not yield good underlying numbers. This season they have tried to build out of the back with more regularity. The results have been great, as they have created at least 1.4 expected goals in all four of their matches, but this is going to be a different type of opponent.
My biggest question is can they go on the road and do that against a team that is going to sit in a 5-3-2 and deny space through the middle? Manchester United don't have a good aerial threat in the middle, so it's going to be important for them to try and overload the middle or hit Crystal Palace in quick counterattacking opportunities when they can.
Crystal Palace vs Man United Prediction
Even though Crystal Palace have had a rough start to the season, Oliver Glasner's tactics are getting better. The ability to adapt and change formations to best suit his team and the situation is why the Eagles took off towards the end of last season. He will likely have them set up in their usual defensive structure, but look for him to potentially transition Palace to a 4-2-2-2 to hit United through the middle of the pitch as the match wears on.
I have big question marks for Manchester United in this game because they were terrible away from Old Trafford last season and have yet to play away from home against a team that is going to sit passively in a defensive block and dare them to break down their compact defensive block. It's going to be up to the United wingers to create most of their chances and without an aerial threat in the middle, I think it's going to be a bit of a struggle.
I have Crystal Palace projected as a slight home favorite, so I like the value on them draw no bet at +110.
