Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest Odds
| Crystal Palace Odds | +120 |
| Nottingham Forest Odds | +250 |
| Draw | +210 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 +130 / -167 |
Nottingham Forest travel to South London for a mid-table clash with Crystal Palace in primetime on Saturday.
Forest have enjoyed a really positive start to the season, sitting in 12th place when last season they were fighting relegation the entire season. They've brought in a ton of talented players to help keep them in the Premier League and are starting to see signs of all of that money spent. However, this is a really tough spot on the road against a solid defense.
Crystal Palace are right where they've been for it seems like a decade – the middle of the table. The Eagles pulled off a huge upset in their last match, going on the road to Old Trafford and beating Manchester United at +500. While that win was huge for them, it's a match like this where three points are vital if they want to finish in the top half of the table.
Here is my Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest preview.
Crystal Palace
Who is actually going to score for Crystal Palace in this match? Currently Eze, Edouard and Olise are going to miss this match, which are their three main goal threats, meaning Palace are going to have to turn to Mateta, Jeffrey Schlupp and Jordan Ayew to break down a compact low block.
Even though Crystal Palace will be without a lot of their main attackers, they are one of the most solid defensive teams in the entire Premier League. Roy Hodgson values compactness over anything else, so Crystal Palace tend to be a bit more passive than a lot of other teams around them in the table. That defensive solidity has proven to be effective, as the Eagles are only conceding 1.1 npxG per 90 minutes and have allowed the fourth-fewest big scoring chances.
Most importantly, Crystal Palace are not going to press you high. They always make sure they have cover so they don’t get exploited in transition, and they have one of the best transition defenders in the Premier League in Cheick Doucouré.
Nottingham Forest
Nottingham Forest’s 3-5-2 low block has actually been really effective this season. They have conceded just three big scoring chances, which is second-best in the Premier League, and they are first in final third to box entry conversion rate, showing how effective they’ve been at keeping teams out of their penalty area. Palace aren’t going to press high and give Crystal Palace transitional opportunities, and even if they do, Palace don't have any of their personnel available to threaten them.
Nottingham Forest are basically only good in their transitional moments. In their last four matches they’ve failed to create over 1 xG and three of those matches came against good transition defenses like Chelsea, Manchester City and Brentford. Taiwo Awoniyi has been fantastic up top, scoring three goals and creating 2.3 of their 6.7 xG, but their attack is entirely reliant on his production. Nobody else on thew squad has above a 0.20 xG per 90 minute scoring rate.
Forest have also been pretty poor away from home since they earned promotion to the Premier League. Dating back to the start of last season, they have a -20.3 xG differential and have only created 20.7 xG in their 22 road matches.
Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest
Pick & Prediction
Crystal Palace’s match against Fulham is a good example of what I believe this match will look like. A lot of stale possession, no high quality chances and two offenses really struggling to break down sturdy defenses.
With Crystal Palace not having their two best attackers available, I have real questions of how they are going to break down Nottingham Forest's passive low block, which has been much more effective this season. The flip side is Nottingham Forest have a bottom five offense that is only creating 0.97 xG per 90 minutes and is only good in transitional moments, which isn't going to work against Crystal Palace.
I have BTTS – no projected at -165, so I like the value on the current line of -120.
