Borussia Dortmund vs AC Milan Odds
| Borussia Dortmund Odds | +137 |
| AC Milan Odds | +200 |
| Draw | +250 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -143 / +120 |
Borussia Dortmund have their home opener in the Champions League group and the German side is desperate for points after losing 2-0 in Paris in the group opener. There's no easy match in the group of death with PSG, Newcastle, AC Milan and Dortmund, and points will be at a premium.
The market has moved solidly toward Milan since the market for this match opened, as Dortmund have drifted from a +120 home favorite closer to a true tossup as a +137 moneyline favorite at bet365. The Italian side dominated Newcastle at home in their first match, but they failed to find the breakthrough goal as they drew 0-0 despite 25 shots attempted.
Let's get into the Dortmund vs AC Milan fixture.
Borussia Dortmund
Dortmund managed a 3-1 win against Hoffenheim in the league on Friday, but the underlying performance was once again quite average. Even though they were awarded a penalty in the match, Dortmund had fewer overall xG and shots.
Hoffenheim had more touches in the opposition penalty area even before the red card sent Dortmund down to 10 men. It’s only one game, but it gets to the larger concern about Dortmund. They’ve played a pretty weak schedule in Germany — their toughest two opponents were average — and yet the underlying defensive profile remains quite mediocre.
If you just looked at the raw xG differential, you’d say Dortmund were comparable to last year under Edin Terzic. Since losing Jude Bellingham and Raphael Guerrero to summer sales, they’ve been worse in settled possession.
They still haven’t addressed the lack of midfield ball winning, and the attacking numbers are inflated by some really huge set piece chances falling to Mats Hummels in the center of the penalty area. Hummels has the most xG produced for this Dortmund side that usually likes to spread the chances around, but they haven't gotten the leap from Sebastian Haller they’d hoped for thus far.
Haller has 1.5 shots per 90 thus far this season, which is considerably worse than leading shot getter Donyell Malen (3.5 per 90). Losing Bellingham’s ball progression means that Marco Reus and Julian Brandt need to up their ball carrying and passing, but that hasn’t really happened either.
Dortmund are still flawed defensively in transition and will need to find a solve for Rafael Leao, but Milan also aren't a side to take a lot of chances and commit numbers forward in or out of possession.
AC Milan
Milan have only had one bad defensive game all year — the 5-1 defeat to Inter. They’ve conceded less than 1 xG in every other match this season and will have their entire first choice defense available. Mike Maignan avoided a potential injury scare and is fit to start for this match.
Stefano Pioli’s side is notorious for their conservatism — they rode hot finishing variance in front of goal and an elite defense into a league title in 2021-22. The attack has struggled mightily to score goals in Europe though.
Leao had a dream run and finish to book Milan’s spot in the CL semifinal last year and they beat Spurs 1-0 on aggregate over two legs. Outside of the games against Salzburg and Zagreb in the CL last year, Milan couldn’t produce many chances against Chelsea and the rest of the upper echelon in Europe.
Milan are still getting superstar production from Leao and he’s a one man attack at times, but their attacking numbers in Italy thus far are a bit inflated by an unusual number of penalties called in their favor.
If you take out penalties, Milan’s attack has been closer to league average in Italy.
Borussia Dortmund vs AC Milan
Pick & Prediction
Milan will come to Dortmund with one goal in mind — to try to get a point on the road in the most difficult group. We’ve seen Dortmund produce a ton of chances against the bad and open defenses in the Bundesliga, but they’ll face a real challenge breaking down an organized Milan defense.
I’m still not sure what Dortmund’s best attacking lineup is and while they do have depth to turn to in the second half, Dortmund’s box entry numbers fall well short of last year’s once you schedule adjust. I’m expecting a lot of low scoring contests in this group early on, including this match.
I project this total to be just a touch over 2.5 at 2.61, so I’ll grab under 2.5 at +110 or better.
Pick: Under 2.5 (+120 via bet365, pair with our bet365 bonus code for bonus bets)
