Dortmund vs PSV Odds
| Dortmund Odds | +115 |
| PSV Odds | +200 |
| Draw | +290 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -211 / +160 |
Entering the round of 16 of the Champions League, Borussia Dortmund and PSV were the two most evenly matched opponents based on the betting odds to advance. Dortmund were the tiniest of favorites to make the quarterfinal before the tie. After a road 1-1 draw in Eindhoven in the first leg, the German side is now a solid -160 favorite to reach the next round as they return home to Dortmund for the second leg on Wednesday.
The underlying box score from the first matchup suggests that while PSV had the better numbers overall, but they didn't do an effective job of creating high quality chances aside from the penalty won. PSV finished the first leg with 0.8 non-penalty expected goals, which is roughly even with Dortmund's output.
The German side controlled the opening 20 minutes, but created next to nothing in the final 70 minutes after Donyell Malen's opening goal against his former club. In fact, Dortmund managed three total shot attempts after taking a 1-0 lead. They had trouble keeping the ball and passing through PSV's pressure, which makes them a vulnerable favorite in the second leg, even at home.
Here's my Dortmund vs PSV prediction.
Dortmund
Borussia Dortmund have the fourth-highest average pass completion rate in the Bundesliga this season at 83.4%. Only Stuttgart, Leverkusen and Bayern complete a higher percentage of passes. They completed just 74.4% of passes in the first leg in Eindhoven, which is the third-lowest of any match this season, ahead of only their road trips to Leverkusen and Newcastle. PSV play a style that is similar to many German teams, highlighted by pressing, lots of vertical passing and little time spent in defensive possession and ball circulation.
It's concerning that Dortmund couldn't maintain control of the ball or bring into the PSV penalty area often. They had just three passes into the box, fourth-fewest of the year. Malen was pretty much Dortmund's entire attack in the first leg. Not only did he score the goal, but he had five shots and five touches in the penalty area. PSV had four more touches in the penalty area than Dortmund.
As the venue shifts to Dortmund, PSV will still have the opportunity to press and easily bypass Dortmund's lackluster defensive midfield by playing through it. Dortmund have only allowed 31 goals this season in Germany (tied for third-best), but their underlying xG data suggests that they've run extremely well not to concede more goals.
They have allowed 38.2 xGA which is nearly 1.5 xG allowed per match. That ranks 10th in the Bundesliga out of 18 teams. Even though Dortmund won the group of death, it wasn't because of their quality play defensively. They allowed 10.6 xGA in six matches and actually had a negative expected goal differential. PSG and Milan were the two best teams by underlying numbers, but teams were incredibly inefficient at finishing chances against Dortmund there too.
PSV
There were numerous chances when PSV found themselves in space in transition and ready to attack the Dortmund penalty area. The Dutch side wasn't efficient at turning dangerous possession into shots in that match, but it's clear that there will be even more opportunities in the second leg. Malik Tillman and Hirving Lozano were the two key players in the first leg for PSV. Neither had their best games in terms of end product, but both had a ton of touches on the ball in space in advanced areas.
Dortmund got away with it in the first leg, but there are reasons to be optimistic about PSV's attack in this second leg especially now that Dortmund center back Nico Schlotterbeck is out. Dortmund generally allows the second-lowest pass completion rate in Germany at 76%. PSV's 80% suggests that the Dortmund press was generally ineffective.
Sergino Dest was the best ball progression engine on the pitch for PSV in the first meeting, and full back has been a consistent defensive issue for the German side all year. Dortmund are 10th at allowing crosses into the penalty area in the Bundesliga and the defense has struggled in Europe too.
The Eredivisie is down this year relative to past years — a large part of that being Ajax's fall off — but PSV's dominance of the Dutch top flight shouldn't be understated. They have a +2.16 xG difference per match this season. They've scored 80 goals in 25 matches and have yet to lose a match. 22 wins, three draws has them 10 points clear of Feyenoord, who was formidable in the Champions League as well this year.
Dortmund vs PSV
Prediction
Given the relatively mediocre showings of Bayern Munich, RB Leipzig and Union Berlin (compared to expectations) in Europe this season, it raises questions about the current Bundesliga situation. Dortmund don't have Haaland or Jude Bellingham anymore. The lack of a defensive midfield looks like a glaring hole on the pitch and then manifests itself when you watch Edin Terzic's side.
The inability to stop transitions and defend makes them a vulnerable favorite at home. I still have PSV as a better team on a neutral and I'd bet them at -140 or better to get a result on the road on Wednesday.
