Eintracht Frankfurt vs. Napoli Odds
Eintracht Frankfurt Odds | +240 |
Napoli Odds | +110 |
| Draw | +250 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-122/ +100) |
| Both Teams to Score (Yes/No) | (-156/ +124 |
| Odds via FanDuel. Get the latest soccer odds here. | |
Eintracht Frankfurt needed a late comeback against Sporting Lisbon to advance out of its Champions League group in second place, and now the German side will try to start a deep European knockout tournament run for the second straight season when it hosts dominant Italian side Napoli on Tuesday.
Frankfurt is only in this competition because they won the Europa League final last season, beating Barcelona, West Ham and Rangers en route to the title. It's a step up in class to compete in Europe's premier competition, but the oddsmakers weren't even expecting Frankfurt to make it this far.
Now that they're here, one of the most dominant teams in Europe awaits. Napoli wasn't expected to be a juggernaut, but they trucked their way through a group that included Ajax and Liverpool. The Italian side has just two draws and one defeat in 23 Serie A matches. The lead at the top of the table is 15 points.
Napoli has enjoyed breakout superstar seasons from two of its forwards — Victor Osimhen and Khvicha Kvaratshkelia — but the market has now potentially overinflated them on a week-to-week basis as they continue to thrash a weakened Serie A in 2022-23.
Napoli are clear favorites to go through over two legs, but can Frankfurt make life difficult for Napoli in the first leg in Germany?
Eintracht Frankfurt
When you think of a traditional German team, you often think of high defensive lines and manic pressing. But that hasn't really been the profile of Eintracht Frankfurt under Oliver Glasner. Frankfurt is ninth in opponent pass completion rate allowed in Germany and 12th in passes per defensive action. Glasner's side is below average in defensive line height and opponent build-up percentage allowed.
They'll let you possess the ball and try to play through them, waiting for the right moment to spring pressing traps and hit in transition. They lead the Bundesliga in goals forced from high turnovers despite not pressing that much nor getting all that many shots from open play.
You can't discuss Frankfurt without also acknowledging that the team has run quite well from a finishing perspective for more than a year now. The attack is heavily reliant on creating and finishing big scoring chances at an elite rate. They had the 12th-best xGF in Germany last year, and while that's improved to seventh this year, they're still just 12th in expected threat and 15th in shots per match.
It's hard to imagine Frankfurt will sustain their finishing, which has produced 42 goals from 31 expected goals, an overperformance of more than 30%. If Glasner has made a real significant improvement for Frankfurt this season, it's come in the form of an improved defense. The back line is pretty mediocre on paper, but they've conceded the fourth fewest xGA in Germany this season.
A lot of Frankfurt's xG difference is also built on a bunch of dominant outlier victories too. If you look at raw xG difference, they're roughly the fifth-best team in Germany. My numbers and their expected points have them closer to ninth.
Napoli
There are only three teams in Europe's top five leagues that have a higher possession percentage than Napoli's 61%: Bayern Munich, Manchester City and Barcelona. That's the company that this Napoli side keeps and the respect that opponents have shown for them in Serie A.
The ball progression machine that Luciano Spalletti has assembled has had little issue tearing apart Serie A defenses this season. They're first in xG per match, goals, shots, touches in the penalty and passes into the penalty area. Osimhen averages 0.72 xG per 90 and has 18 goals in the league, which is five more than any other player.
Only Inter has a higher expected threat per 90 than Napoli, and only Fiorentina better tilts the field on their opponents by controlling possession in the opposition final third so much. I would like to see how Napoli will fare against an opponent that will effectively challenge them in the midfield by pressing and breaking up their easy pass completions in build-up. They don't see it much in Italy, but Torino and Atalanta both showed an ability to do it, and both were able to create more than one expected goal against this defense.
I'm just not sure Eintracht Frankfurt — my eighth-placed team in Germany and the second-worst team remaining in the field — is that team to really trouble and stop this Napoli juggernaut.
Eintracht Frankfurt vs Napoli Pick
Eintracht Frankfurt played six Champions League group stage matches against teams all worse than Napoli and still cleared 12 shots only one time. This attack is the definition of a quality-over-quantity attack, and I don't expect them to press high or cause this match to be played at a frenetic pace.
Napoli is the considerably better side, but there are questions about the true strength of Serie A this season. A lot of the mid-table and lower-league teams have had their talent hollowed out due to financial concerns. And a lot of that talent has been sold abroad and not stayed in the Italian top flight.
Napoli will have most of the possession, and if Frankfurt aren't going to press them intensely, that will lead to a relatively low event matchup in the first leg. There are questions about whether Frankfurt's back line will hold up against the quality of this Napoli attack.
The total has come down considerably, and I'd only played under 2.5 if you can get plus money. I also like betting against this Frankfurt attack getting much of any shot volume on Tuesday, even at home.
