After heartbreak in the Euro final in 2021 losing on penalties to Italy and losing to France in the quarterfinals of the 2022 World Cup, England enter as the favorite to win Euro 2024.
England have not won a major international trophy since the 1966 World Cup and believe it or not, they have never won a European Championship. This is as good of a chance as ever for them to end that drought, as the Three Lions have the most talent squad of the Premier Leagues elite plus the best midfielder in the world in Jude Bellingham.
Gareth Southgate has everything at his disposal to bring home the title, but the only question is who is stopping this England team?
Tactical Analysis
Pragmatism is the word that comes to mind to describe England’s build up, and it’s what has made Gareth Southgate such a polarizing figure, but what England have best is control, and they do that better than any team in Europe outside of maybe Spain.
Stones and Maguire will operate as the two center backs and main ball carriers with Trippier and Walker providing width to stretch the opponent's defensive block, while Bellingham and Rice operate in the half spaces. The goal for England is to open up space in the middle for those two. Oftentimes you will see Saka or Foden (when he’s playing left wing) play very narrow to help England try to create that overload in the middle or Harry Kane will drop deep as well, but the ultimate goal is to create chances through the middle.
One of the underrated parts of England’s build up is when they are playing extremely passive defensive blocks they will use the concept of “overload to isolate.” They will force the defensive block to push to one side of the pitch to free up a switch ball across the pitch to get Saka into 1 v 1 situations with the opposing fullback in which he can create a shot by cutting in or send in a cross while the defensive block is in the middle of rotating to catch them out of position.
England love to counterpress when they lose the ball and are incredibly effective at winning the ball back because they have the best group of pressing and ball winning forwards/midfielders in the world.
Playing through guys like Bellingham and Rice when they are in a double pivot is incredibly difficult, but their hybrid press that resembles a lot of what Arsenal did this season is incredibly effective because Maguire and Stones are really good at reading balls over the top coming through the middle.
Defending in transition and defending set pieces are the two biggest keys for some of the top sides to avoid getting upset. Since England held 66% of the possession throughout qualifying, those are really the only two routes that teams have against them. They allowed the fewest shots per set piece in the Euro field and also allowed the sixth-fewest shots off of counterattacks.
data via WyScout
Pick
England and France are the two most talented squads in this tournament. The problem that exists for betting England to win the tournament at such a short price is that if they win Group C and France win Group F, they will be placed on the same side of the bracket.
Defensively, they are the best team in this tournament. Maguire and Stones have been a rock solid center back pairing for a really long time and England are going to control a majority of the possession/tilt the field on every single opponent they play.
In terms of a bet on England I do not have one at the team level, but I do have a player prop. I like Jude Bellingham under 2.5 goals at -163. While Bellingham scored 23 goals for Real Madrid this season, he was playing a much different role as their main No. 10 and box-crashing striker because Real Madrid played without a true striker.
That is not the case with England. He is most likely going to play as a No. 8 alongside Declan Rice in the midfield, which is severely going to limit his shot production. At the 2022 World Cup, he averaged 1.09 shots per 90 minutes and only 1.12 during qualifying, so scoring three goals is going to be incredibly difficult when he's not the focal point of the offense.
