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England vs. France Odds
| England Odds | +200 |
| France Odds | +140 |
| Draw | +225 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (+100 / -125) |
| Both Teams to Score (Yes/No) | (-125 / -106) |
| Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute World Cup odds here. | |
The final quarterfinal match of the World Cup is the headliner with two of the best in the world squaring off. It's England versus France.
England have been cruising through this tournament, scoring a whopping 12 goals in four matches after 3-0 rout of Senegal. The Three Lions now will have to face the stiffest competition since the Euro Final two summers ago against Italy. Stopping Kylian Mbappe is a monumental task in and of itself, but if there is a defense in the world that can contain him, it's England.
France have been dominating everyone in their World Cup path when they play a full strength lineup. They started their tournament putting four past Australia, dominating a really good Denmark team and then beating Poland 3-1 in the round of 16. However – much like England – this the best team they've faced since the Euros, which makes this the best match of the tournament thus far.
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England Peaking at The Right Time
England did such a good job of pressing effectively against Senegal. I’m sure some people were surprised to see Jordan Henderson in the Starting XI, but the reason he was in their was because Southgate wanted all three of his midfielders to be able to defend in transition against a good counterattacking side and because of his pressing ability. England had a PPDA of 6.7 and forced seven high turnovers against Senegal.
Having Jude Bellingham in this midfield makes a world of a difference for England because of Bellingham’s ability to progress the ball up the pitch and be a threat in and around the box. So, playing Henderson actually adds an even better element to this England side. So far this tournament, England have had a PPDA below 9.5 in every single match.
Bellingham ➡️ Henderson ⚽️💥
Another look at this goal by @England 🏴 pic.twitter.com/Y3F5K3OWs0
— FOX Soccer (@FOXSoccer) December 4, 2022
England have some of the best underlying numbers of anyone in this tournament with a +3.2 xGD in four matches. They also have only conceded 2.4 non-penalty xG, which isn't anything new for this English defense. Coming into the tournament they allowed only 0.63 xG per match throughout World Cup Qualifying and the Euros.
France Out-Performing Underlying Metrics
France were not very good against a bad Poland side. Poland actually won the xG battle and had two golden chances to go ahead.
France 3-1 Poland
world champions utilise world's best player to reach the #FIFAWorldCup quarter-finals
No-one wants to face Kylian Mbappe rn#FRAPOLpic.twitter.com/DT7cjxlqZh
— Opta Analyst (@OptaAnalyst) December 4, 2022
Mbappe’s quality shined through and France were able to prevail, but they become so reliant on him to be their main offensive threat. It’s why you see them overloading the left side of the pitch with Antoine Griezmann and Adrien Rabiot to free up space down the channel for him to operate.
He’s also had the luxury of going up against some pretty average right backs. Now he has to face Kyle Walker, who is one of the best in the world at covering ground and Walker has the pace to keep up with Mbappe.
France actually sat very deep and compact against Denmark and didn’t press, which is something we’ve been accustomed to under DeChamps and I think we will see a similar approach against England.
Also, outside of France’s pounding of that lame duck Denmark team, where is the impressive result in a real competition since their 2018 World Cup win? In the Euros they were in the group of death with Germany and Portugal and lost the xG battle by a combined 1.87 to 3.55.
Even during World Cup Qualifying they were in a really easy group where their hardest competition was Bosnia & Herzegovina and Ukraine, and they struggled against both of them.
England vs. France Pick
I get it, France have the Golden Boot winner and best player in the world in Mbappe, but you cannot tell me that France have more talent across their starting XI than England have right now.
The Three Lions have a better striker, midfielders, defenders and a better goalkeeper. On top of that, England had better underlying numbers coming into the World Cup, so it's a little crazy to me that England are an underdog in this matchup.
I have England projected at -122 to advance to the semifinals, so I love the value on them to advance at plus-money.
The Pick: England to Advance +110
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