England – Slovakia Pick: Euro 2024 Betting Preview

Sunday, June 30

12 p.m. ET

FOX

England Odds	-230
Slovakia Odds	+850
Tie	+310
Over / Under	2.5  +117o / -148u

Odds via BetRivers. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

Let's dive into the England vs Slovakia odds and make a pick and prediction in our Euro 2024 betting preview for Sunday, June 30.

England looks to progress to the quarterfinals when they take on Slovakia in a Sunday Euro matchup.

England was once again unimpressive against Slovenia drawing them 0-0. In the end, they did win Group C and put themselves in a really good position to make a deep run in this tournament. While there are clear concerns in front of net, they have been the best defensive team in this tournament, which could take them all the way to the finals.

Slovakia's upset win over Belgium in the first match of the group stage proved to be enough to get them to the knockout stage for the second time in the country's history. They weren't very impressive though during the group stage and got dominated by Portugal in qualifying. Unless they pull off a great defensive performance, it looks unlikely that they will pull off the upset.

Euro 2024 Picks | Best Bets for Soccer Games TodayRead now

England Pick

England once again struggled in possession and quite frankly looked completely disjointed. Coach Gareth Southgate started Connor Gallagher alongside Declan Rice in the midfield, but it clearly wasn’t working, so he subbed Kobbie Mainoo on at half time.

The issues that had against Slovenia’s 4-4-2 low block were very similar to the problems they had in their first two group stage matches as well. There is no onus or clear plan to play through the middle of the pitch.

Jude Bellingham is floating around trying to find space, Harry Kane keeps dropping deep, but there is either no space or the opposition has a numerical advantage in the middle, so they can’t play through.

When England faces low blocks, which they are going to again against Slovakia, their ball rotations and passing around the defensive block are incredibly slow. It ends up allowing their opponents to easily stay compact and live with England trying to beat them in wide areas.

At one point against Slovenia, only 16% of their attacks were coming through the middle of the pitch. What's weird as well is England seems to be refusing to settle for crosses too, because they've attempted the fourth fewest so far this tournament and seem to be just relying on individual quality to play through the opponents defensive structure.

Slovakia Pick

Slovakia is going to sit in a 4-5-1 defensive structure and like the three teams England has already faced, dare them to break them down. The spine of their team is actually pretty good and will make it very difficult for England to play through the middle with the likes of Feyenoord’s Dávid Hancko and PSG’s Milan Škriniar along with a great central midfielder in Napoli’s Stanislav Lobotka.

They really haven't been that good defensively during this tournament conceding 4.5 expected goals through three matches, but this is a much more conservative team they're playing and they conceded most of those chances when they were leading against Belgium and Ukraine. Naturally, they conceded possession of the match to try and protect their lead.

There really isn't anything to this attack though. Even though they scored in all three of their group stage matches, they only created 2.3 expected goals and have completed just 13 passes into the penalty area, which is third lowest in this tournament.

Not to mention, they're almost completely reliant on set pieces and transition attacks as their main two ways to create chances, which is simply not going to be successful against England's defense.

England vs Slovakia

Pick

Even with all of their problems though, England has been the best defensive team in this tournament allowing only 1.2 expected goals. They do not allow you to play in transition or create chances off of set pieces, which are basically the only two methods Slovakia creates chances.

Slovakia is going to do exactly what Denmark, Serbia, and Slovenia did against England: sit deep, deny space space through the middle, and dare them to beat them from outwide.

Even if England goes ahead in this match, they have proven under Southgate that they will take the most conservative approach possible to protect their lead, so I think we have another low event type of match on our hands.

I only have 2.14 goals projected for this match, so I like the value on under 2.5 goals at

England vs Slovakia Pick: Under 2.5 (-137 via BetRivers)