Here's everything you need to know about the English Championship Playoff ahead of Leeds United vs Norwich City and Southampton vs West Brom. Soccer expert BJ Cunningham is here to take you through the matches and offer up his best bets on the slate.
The first round is a two-leg tie with the winners meeting at Wembley for one match to decide who goes to the Premier League. We are now in the second leg stage of the fixtures.
If you'd like to see our projections for the English Championship and a number of other leagues, you can find them here.
Here are our English Championship playoffs predictions.
English Championship Playoffs Predictions
| Leeds United Odds | -167 |
| Norwich City Odds | +450 |
| Draw | +300 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -125 / +100 |
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The first leg between these two was completely dead and ended 0-0, but that doesn't mean there weren't chances.
Leeds were trying force the issue early, pressing high in a man to man fashion from their 4-3-3. That was forcing Norwich to play very direct. Leeds' defensive shape was pretty narrow and they were playing a high line, so Norwich were finding success playing balls in behind and out wide with Josh Sargent having their chance of the match off a cross, but in the end Norwich only created 0.51 xG off of seven shots.
Leeds did have a couple of transition breaks early on in the match, but then Norwich quickly realized that they could get into an up and down type of match, so they ended up sitting in a passive 4-4-2 mid-block for the remainder of the match. They did a great job too because Leeds only ended up taking six shots and creating 0.25 xG for the match.
What is concerning going into this second leg is how sustainable Norwich's defensive block is. Even though Leeds only created 0.25 xG, they did have 27 touches in Norwich City's penalty area and now they are going away from home where they've been pretty poor this season having a -10.4 expected goal differential.
I am projecting Leeds at -218 for this match, so there is some value on their moneyline. But instead of laying a big price, I think a better play would be backing them to be promoted at +140. They played Southampton on the final day of the regular season and closed as a -155 home favorite, so on a neutral field they are most likely going to be favored over them and there is a chance they face West Brom, in which they will be a sizable favorite.
Pick: Leeds United to be Promoted (+140 via DraftKings)
| Southampton Odds | -125 |
| West Brom Odds | +375 |
| Draw | +240 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 +100 / -125 |
Southampton had a really hard time creating chances against West Brom's defensive block in the first leg and it ended up being a pretty even match.
Not surprisingly, Southampton held 63% possession in the match, but they really weren't that effective when they got into the final third. Southampton had 48 entries into the final third with only 12 converted into a penalty box entry, which is well below their average for the season and didn't register a shot with an xG rating over 0.20.
When you play a passive defensive block like West Brom, you have to be good at winning your defensive duels, otherwise teams will play right through you. For the season, West Brom are winning over 60% of their defensive duels, which is one of the main reasons why they held Southampton to just one expected goal.
What was really impressive about West Brom is how effective they were in their transition opportunities. West Brom had 30 entries into Southampton's final third and converted them into 17 box entries, which is incredibly efficient. They also were dangerous on set pieces, which is a massive advantage they have over Southampton being No. 1 in the Championship in xG per set pieces, while Southampton are 16th in xG per set piece allowed.
I think Southampton re vulnerable given how the first leg played out, so I like the value on West Brom +0.5 at +107.
Pick:West Brom +0.5 (+107 via bet365)
