The Premier League had another rather straightforward weekend without too many upsets. It's a great slate for match week three before we head off into an international break with the big match being Sunday at Old Trafford between Manchester United and Liverpool.
Read on for my English Premier League picks, featuring Arsenal vs Brighton and Nottingham Forest vs Wolves.
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Premier League Picks, Premier League Predictions
BJ Cunningham's Premier League Picks
Arsenal weren't that great offensively against Aston Villa and it had more to do with Unai Emery’s tactics than anything else. The Gunners did struggle to steadily generate chances from open play because Aston Villa were consistently defending in a back six, which meant that Arsenal couldn’t overload the last line of defense.
The thing is, Brighton are not going to be a whole lot different in this match. Hurzeler’s out of possession tactics mirror closer to a mid-block than a team that presses high like De Zerbi did. Brighton were consistently sitting in a very compact shape, playing a high line, with often times five guys across their backline to reduce the space in between lines. Brighton have been solid defensively in this shape and the only real times they have been opened up is when they lose the ball and the opposing team can break.
Arsenal obviously have a lot of work to do to figure out teams that are going to play five or six guys across the back line and with Havertz up top, those problems are only going to continue.
Either way, this sets up for a low-event type match with Brighton’s out of possession structure and they aren’t going to be afforded the build up success they had against Everton or Manchester United because Arsenal are too good defensively.
I only have 2.47 goals projected for this game, so I like the value on the under.
Pick: Under 3 (+103 via bet365)
Nottingham Forest were really impressive against Southampton and showed some of the versatility out of possession that makes them dangerous against teams at the bottom of the table. Wolves under Gary O’Neill want to be a team that has the ability to play out of the back and they have the personnel to do so, but oftentimes they commit way too many high turnovers, which is what led to them getting outplayed by Nottingham Forest last season.
That match at the City Ground ended 2-2, but Forest were by far the better team. They won the xG battle 1.9 to 1.0, but I think the most important stat from that match was Nottingham Forest forcing 21 high recoveries in the match, which was their highest mark under Nuno Espirito Santo. If Forest feel they can effectively press high, they will do it in a man to man fashion. They smothered Wolves and created a lot of easy transition moments off those high recoveries, so they can do the same thing to Wolves if they decide to try and build out of the back again.
Nottingham Forest under-performed under Nuno Espírito Santo last season, having a +4.3 npxGD in his 21 matches in charge, despite a -5 goal differential. Over that exact same time frame, Wolves drastically over-performed, having a -7 goal differential, but a -16.8 npxGD.
I have Nottingham Forest projected at -134, so I like the value on them at +110.
Pick: Nottingham Forest ML (+110 via bet365)
This line is too low for Brentford given the way Southampton have looked through the first two matches.
Southampton under Russell Martin are sure going to try and control as much possession as they can. They thing is, they actually look quite good through the first two phases of build up. Nottingham Forest were sitting in a 4-2-4 mid-block and often times Southampton were getting the ball into their final third without much resistance, but that is where the troubles were because Martin has not figured out how to turn their build up into consistent generation of chances.
I think this stat tells you everything you need to know: In the second half against Nottingham Forest, Southampton controlled 70% of the possession, but they got outshot 11 to 1 at home. In total for the match they only took five shots and generated 0.15 expected goals. Things are not going to get any easier against Brentford, who are going to sit in a very similar defensive shape and make it very difficult for Southampton to get into their penalty area.
Southampton defensively are also prone to two things: transition attacks and set pieces. Last season in the Championship they allowed the most counterattacking shots per 90 minutes of anyone, and so far they’ve allowed five counterattacking shots through two matches. Set pieces and transition breaks are what Brentford do best, so they should thrive in this match.
I have Brentford projected at -163, so I love the value on the Bees at -135.
