The Premier League had a rather straightforward opening weekend without too many upsets. It's an interesting slate for match week two with the big match being Aston Villa hosting Arsenal, but there are plenty of betting opportunities
Read on for my English Premier League picks, featuring Southampton vs Nottingham Forest and Aston Villa vs Arsenal
Make sure to follow all of our Premier League coverage throughout the season here and on Youtube, and make sure to subscribe to the Wondergoal podcast for episodes all season long. Also if you like to see my projections for every Premier League match you can find them here.
Premier League Picks, Premier League Predictions
BJ Cunningham's Premier League Picks
Russell Martin’s Southampton dominated possession in the Championship at 63% on average. They also led the league in total passes and most importantly total short passes completed. He loves overloads in build up, whether it’s getting a 3 v 2 through the first phase or a 4 v 3 when they reach the final third, but that really isn’t going to be effective against Nottingham Forest.
Since Nuno Espírito Santo took over on December 20th, 2023 at Nottingham Forest they have only allowed 1.32 npxG per 90 minutes, which is the fourth-best mark in the Premier League. In addition to that, against the bottom half of the table, they only allowed 11.8 expected goals in 11 matches.
Nottingham Forest are dangerous transition team under Nuno. They have the ball carriers and pace to shred Southampton when the Saints lose the ball. Southampton conceded 2.1 counterattacking shots per 90 minutes last season in the Championship, which was the most in the league. In addition to that, Nottingham Forest don't sit back against everyone, if they feel they can press effectively, they will do it and in the rare instances they have, they’ve been really effective.
Pick: Nottingham Forest – Draw No Bet (+107 via bet365)
Last season West Ham defended in a passive low block under David Moyes and it led to them allowing 1.87 xG per 90 minutes, which was the fourth-most in the Premier League. They have very little ball winning in their midfield currently and Aston Villa exploited that in the first match. Lopetegui wants his team to play in a high defensive block, but West Ham clearly are struggling to put any type of real pressure on the ball. Aston Villa built up through the middle of the pitch whenever they wanted to.
That in a sense is the problem with West Ham. You don’t suddenly go from being a bottom five defense to above average because of a change in tactics and new signings that have nothing to do with addressing the core problem. West Ham only won 38% of their ground duels against Aston Villa – nothing has changed from David Moyes.
Crystal Palace played West Ham on April 21st at Selhurst Park and absolutely destroyed them. The final was 5-2, it was 4-0 at the half hour mark, shots were 18 to 4 and penalty box touches were 27 to 8. Crystal Palace closed at the exact same price that day as they are in this match, which I think is crazy. So, I like the value on Crystal Palace at +115.
Pick: Crystal Palace ML (+115 via bet365)
Aston Villa beat Arsenal twice last season, but Arsenal should have won both matches. The last meeting at the Emirates was the last time Arsenal lost a match in the Premier League despite completely dominating the first half and winning the xG battle in total 1.6 to 0.9 and Arsenal having a field tilt of 66%. What Arsenal have done in both meeting against Aston Villa is completely shut down their build up attack. Villa’s had no success building up with short passes like they like to and have been forced to play more direct, which plays right into Arsenal’s hands given that they are the best team in the Premier League at winning duels.
Aston Villa got a pretty bad defensive team in the opening match and looked great in build up, but I worry that facing the best defensive team in the Premier League that they are going to struggle once again to find a way out of their own defensive third. Douglas Luiz was the most influential player in build up last season being the main midfielder dropping deep in build up and conducted Aston Villa through the first two phases of build up. Onana has the potential to be that guy, but he’s not ready right now, especially not against Arsenal.
There is also the case of Aston Villa being horrible defensively against the good teams last year. Against the top eight offensive teams by expected goals for, Aston Villa conceded 1.84 xG per 90 minutes and also overall conceded the second-most big scoring chances in the Premier League.
I have Arsenal projected at -143, so I like the value on them at -125.
