The Premier League returns this weekend for a new season with loads of hype and drama at every end of the table. The headliner of the weekend is at Stamford Bridge as Manchester City takes on big spenders Chelsea in what is set to be a thrilling encounter.
Read on for my Premier League Best Bets, featuring Ipswich Town vs Liverpool and Arsenal vs Wolves.
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Premier League Picks, Premier League Predictions
BJ Cunningham's Premier League Picks
Ipswich played a very exciting brand of football in the Championship by building out of the back and effectively pressing opponents high. The problem is trying to play a build out of the back type of system against Liverpool, who are an elite pressing team is a death sentence and one that I think are going to cause Ipswich to implode. Liverpool under Arne Slot are going to look a lot like they did under Klopp. They are going to man to man press Ipswich who I don’t think will be ready for it. Even if Ipswich do decide to go long, getting into a back and forth transitional battle with Liverpool is a nightmare scenario.
Ipswich are the least talented team in the Premier League according to transfermarkt.com and, in my opinion, are not well positioned to play with only 30-40% of the possession. Additionally they are also due for regression scoring 18 more goal than their expected goals in the Championship, so I think they are in for a beatdown on opening weekend.
I have Liverpool's spread projected at -1.80, so I like the value on Liverpool -1.5 at -106.
Pick: Liverpool -1.5 (-106 via BetRivers)
Arsenal last season were the best out of possession team in the world. In the world's most difficult league they only conceded 0.73 xG per 90 minutes and in only five Premier League matches did an opponent create more than one non-penalty expected goal against them. That is because they have no weaknesses defensively. Their high press is devastating for teams trying to build out of the back. They win the most second balls of anyone if you try to play the ball long, and they were the best transition defense in the Premier League ranking number in final third to box entry conversion rate.
Wolves only created a total one expected expected goal in their two meetings with Arsenal last season. They also just sold Pedro Neto to Chelsea and Matheus Cunha is going to miss this match.
Wolves defensively last season were actually pretty solid in their defensive block and were the best team in the Premier League in terms of blocking shots and the percentage of crosses that were completed into their penalty area. Arsenal weren't the best team from open play last season scoring 20 of their goals off of set pieces, which isn't really going to work against Wolves, who were a top five set piece defense.
I have BTTS – no projected at -197, so I like the value on the current line of -142.
Pick: Both Teams to Score – No (-142 via DraftKings)
Bournemouth were the darlings of the Premier League from November on when Adoni Irola finally got his system working on the south coast. They are coming into this Premier League season with a lot of hype, but all of that got squashed when their star striker Dominic Solanke was sold to Tottenham. The problem that Bournemouth run into for this first game is they don't have a consistent goalscoring threat that can trouble one of the better defensive teams in the Premier League because their backup striker Enes Unal is injured for this match as well.
Nottingham Forest battled relegation all season last year, but they underlying numbers were actually pretty impressive. Nuno Espírito Santo took over on December 20th and from that point on, Nottingham Forest had a +4.30 npxGD and underperformed by about nine points. They were so much better at the City Ground last season putting up a +3.2 xGD and allowed the fifth-fewest expected goals in the Premier League. So, I believe as it currently stands that these two teams are even.
Accounting for home field advantage, I think Forest should be a more sizable favorite here and like them on the moneyline at +145.
