We are back from the international break with a great slate of Premier League. The headliner without a doubt takes place on Sunday with Arsenal taking on Tottenham in the North London Derby.
Read on for my English Premier League picks, featuring Southampton vs. Manchester United, Bournemouth vs. Chelsea and Wolves vs. Newcastle.
Make sure to follow all of our Premier League coverage throughout the season here and on Youtube, and make sure to subscribe to the Wondergoal podcast for episodes all season long. Also if you like to see my projections for every Premier League match you can find them here.
Premier League Picks, Premier League Predictions
BJ Cunningham's Premier League Picks
What is pretty clear through Southampton’s first few matches is that Russell Martin’s style of play with squad they have is not sustainable. Southampton are building out of the back in a 3-2-5 and one of two things are happening. Teams are pressing them high and disrupting their build up or they are able to get the ball to the final third and aren’t able to create anything of value.
Brentford by nature are a team that plays passively, but against Southampton they pressed high very aggressively and completely stifled Saints from doing anything and were consistently turning them over high up the pitch.
Manchester United are going to press Southampton’s build up and last season they were actually pretty good at forcing high turnovers, ranking inside the top five, it’s when teams were able to beat the first line of the pressure when they had all sorts of problems. So, there is an element of Southampton building out of the back when they do beat United’s pressure that they could generate some chances.
I think the total is a tad too low here. I have 3.5 goals projected for this game, so I like the value on the over.
Pick: Over 3 (+105 via bet365)
This is a really good spot for Bournemouth to finally unleash their high press.
The goals of Bournemouth’s high press are to force the ball to one side of the pitch, have everyone mark in a man to man fashion and force the opponent into a high turnover or to send the ball long up the pitch. Once Irola finally got the press working in November of last season, Bournemouth had the third-best PPDA in the Premier League.
The problem that has existed this season is they’ve played three of the most direct teams in the Premier League in Nottingham Forest, Newcastle and Everton. Those three teams are not interested in building out of the back and instead have simply been sending the ball long, which has caused Bournemouth to play in more of a mid-block.
Chelsea are going to try to build out of the back and use a lot of short passes to play through Bournemouth’s press. The Blues have faced two pretty poor pressing teams so far in Wolves and Crystal Palace and Manchester City didn’t really press them intensely either. So, this will be Maresca’s first big test against an elite high pressing team.
Bournemouth were incredible at home last season once they got their season turned around. In the final 13 home matches they only lost three matches (Liverpool, Manchester City and Brentford) and had a +9.1 xGD, while Chelsea had a negative expected goal differential on the road last year.
I only have Chelsea projected at +138, so I like the value on Bournemouth +0.5 at -117.
Pick: Bournemouth +0.5 (-117 via bet365)
Newcastle are a much different team on the road than they are at St. James Park, but they are still a far better team than Wolves.
I have a lot of respect for Gary O’Neill and his tactical acumen, but that can only take you so far if you are with a limited squad. In addition to that, the laws of statistical regression are very real and are starting to hit Wolves pretty hard. From January 1st until the end of the season last year, Wolves had a -18 npxGD. That was the worst mark in the Premier League. What kept them up was good box defending and Jose Sa being one of the best keepers in the Premier League from a post shot xG +/- standpoint.
Last season, Newcastle hammered Wolves in both meetings. They created a combined 5.2 expected goals and had so much success playing through the middle of Wolves' defensive block. Wolves have been trying to build out of the back more often and if they do that here, Newcastle can unleash their high press and cause all sorts of problems.
Here’s one thing that has been bothering me about this match. Chelsea went to Wolves in match week 2 as a -130 favorite and hammered them 6-2. Every metric will tell you that Newcastle were just as good if not better than Chelsea last season. So why are they forty cents cheaper on the moneyline? That doesn’t make a whole lot of sense to me, especially now that Fabian Schar is back in the lineup.
I have Newcastle projected at -118, so I like the value on them at +110.
