In the new FFP and PSR era of the Premier League we have to account for and analyze thing happening off the field in regards to points deductions when it comes to futures. Last season, Everton got hit with a total of eight points worth of deductions and Nottingham Forest got hit with a two point deduction.
Here I am going to analyze Leicester City, who are currently in deep trouble with the Premier League, and give out an expert futures bet accordingly.
English Premier League Predictions
Leicester have been charged by the Premier League for violations that took place during the 2022-23 season when they were relegated. They were formally charged on March 21st of 2024 and have also lost their appeal against the Premier League that they acted in good faith. Leicester City did not submit audited financial statements, which is a major red flag and one that is going see them get hit with the most severe points deduction the Premier League has ever seen.
So, it is rumored that a 10-15 points deduction is coming at some point in the season. If we follow the same timeline as Everton, whose case was very similar to that of Leicester, they were formally charged in October. Both Leicester and the Premier League are keeping all details behind closed doors, so we don’t know when the actual date of the points deduction is coming, but since this matter pertains to Leicester two years ago, they’ve already been charged and lost the appeal.
I have to imagine this is happening sooner rather than later. Also even if the points deduction comes and Leicester appeal it, the Premier League's fastest decision of an appeal was three months.
Then there is the on field aspect of switching systems from a possession-dominant build out of back style to Steve Cooper’s 3-5-2 that is going to take time for Leicester and it may take until December before we start seeing signs of its effectiveness.
At Christmas, I have Leicester projected for 14.2 points. Last season, Sheffield United were bottom at Christmas with nine points. If a 12-point deduction is coming, Leicester are going to have to drastically over-perform to not be at the bottom of the table when Santa is coming down the chimney.
So, at +120, I like Leicester to be bottom at Christmas.
