England vs. Italy Odds
| Result | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| England | +163 | 36.51% |
| Italy | +200 | 32.01% |
| Draw | +205 | 31.48% |
With an extra-time goal from captain Harry Kane, England are now through to their first major final since the 1966 World Cup.
The opening odds for Sunday's final between Italy and England have been released shortly after the conclusion of England-Denmark.
England are +163 to win the game in regulation while Italy are +200, according to DraftKings as of Thursday afternoon. The draw is at +205. The three-way moneyline has moved in England's favor over the last 24 hours — the Three Lions opened at around +180.
England to lift the trophy is -115 while Italy's odds of doing so stand at +100 at the sportsbook.
The Action Network's model has Italy's odds to win in regulation at +256, England's odds to win in regulation at +111 and the draw at +308, meaning there might be some solid value on England at north of +160.
The Action Network's model regarding which team will win the tournament has Italy at +148 odds and England at -148 odds.
That same model predicts that Italy will notch 1.05 total xG while England will register 1.31 total xG.
England have only allowed one goal all tournament, while the Italians have only let in three.
The English have lost their last two matchups against Italy at major international tournaments. The last tournament game — during the 2014 World Cup group stage — ended with a 2-1 Italian victory. The match before that took place at the 2012 Euro quarterfinals, which Italy won in penalties.
