Italy vs. Switzerland Odds
| Italy Odds | -159 |
| Switzerland Odds | +510 |
| Draw | +280 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (+128 / -155) |
| Day | Time | Wednesday | 3 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
| Odds as of Tuesday afternoon via DraftKings | |
Italy can all but clinch Group A with a win on Wednesday, although Switzerland will provide a formidable test.
The Italians opened Euro 2020 with a comprehensive 3-0 win over Turkey in Rome. Switzerland was just as dominant against Wales, but conceded a late goal that left it with just a draw.
This is a fantastic matchup of countries full of established, high-quality talent, especially in the middle of the field. Let's see how that translates to betting value.
Italians Delivered in Euro 2020 Opener
Whenever I see analysis about Italy, I keep reading that it lacks “a clinical goalscorer,” which is confusing to me. Yes, Ciro Immobile has scored more than his fair share of penalty kicks over the past two seasons with Lazio, but he’s an experienced striker who has played well all across Europe.
Immobile got the Italians’ second goal after an own goal put them on the board. It was a typical poacher’s goal and one he was surely proud of.
In the game against Turkey, Italy was the dominant side. The Turks didn’t offer much pace to challenge the Italians’ experienced backline of 36-year-old Giorgio Chiellini and 34-year-old Leonardo Bonucci, which is a threat the Swiss will offer.
While the Italians were in control of the game, they would benefit from the return of midfielder Marco Verratti. Jorginho and Manuel Locatelli are a fine duo, but neither can drive the ball forward in the middle of the pitch. The diminutive Paris Saint-Germain man sure can, and he’s closing in on a return having resumed training last Sunday.
Switzerland Looks to Bounce Back After Draw
Like Italy, Switzerland was clearly the superior side in its opener against Wales.
Unlike the Italians, the Swiss gave up a goal.
Switzerland dominated the expected-goals battle by a 1.98-0.43 margin, according to the xG Philosophy, but needed to be more clinical. Breel Embolo scored the Swiss goal and looked fantastic. The striker’s size, strength and pace is everything a player at that position needs to give the Italians trouble.
The Swiss also should match up quite well in midfield with Italy. Granit Xhaka will be on Nicolo Barella duty, while Remo Freuler will look to connect with Xherdan Shaqiri and get Switzerland's counter attack going. Given how ineffective Haris Seferovic was against Wales, it wouldn’t shock me if he was dropped for this game.
Betting Analysis & Pick
The Italians entered Euro 2020 on a fantastic run of form, going undefeated since the return of international play last September. Italy's most impressive win came in September against the Netherlands, whom it drew with a month later.
Switzerland stumbled last fall with losses to Ukraine, Croatia, Spain and Belgium, but it won six consecutive games entering the tournament. Also, all of those defeats were by just one goal.
The Swiss backline features three quality center backs in Manuel Akanji (Borussia Dortmund), Fabian Schar (Newcastle United) and Nico Elvedi (Borussia Mönchengladbach). Their international experience throughout the team is extremely valuable in games like this matchup against Italy.
While the game is in Rome, the Swiss are well-equipped to get a result. Switzerland +0.5 currently sits at +138 odds, which is too high for my blood. Our own BJ Cunningham projects Italy’s moneyline at -125 for this game, while it’s at least -175 everywhere else. The Italians are good, but they’re overvalued here after beating a subpar Turkish team in their opener.
We’ll take the Swiss to bounce back from a disappointing draw against Wales to at least get a point.
Pick: Switzerland +0.5 (+138)
