Here's everything you need to know for my Euro 2024 & Copa America best bets for France – Poland & Chile – Argentina on Tuesday, June 25.
BJ Cunningham is here to take you through the upcoming matches and offer up his expert picks. Cunningham is part of the Wondergoal podcast crew that will be guiding you through both the Euros and Copa America giving his favorite picks.
If you'd like to see picks from Cunningham during the season for both the Euros and Copa America, follow them in the Action Network App.
If you'd like to see our projections for both tournaments, you can find them here.
Here are Cunningham's Euro 2024 & Copa America best bets.
Euro 2024 & Copa America Best Bets
| France Odds | -350 |
| Poland Odds | +900 |
| Draw | +475 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -163 / +130 |
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France haven't really looked great so far in this tournament.
They drew the Netherlands 0-0 and something was very clear in that match. Mbappe was rested because of his broken nose and they really struggled finishing in the final third. All of their goal scoring output was put in the hands of Griezmann, Rabiot, Thuram and Dembele. In the end they did create 1.43 expected goals, but not having the finishing prowess of Mbappe is clearly something they need.
France love to dominate the wide areas and attack from out wide. They were really successful with their passing triangles out wide to create chances via crosses. Poland are one of the better box defending teams in this tournament, despite what you have already seen through their first two matches.
Poland have been terribly unlucky to have lost their first two matches. They lost 2-1 to the Netherlands despite the expected goals battle only being 1.47 to 1.32 and then lost 3-1 to Austria with the expected goals battle being 1.89 to 1.6 and that includes a penalty from Austria.
Poland are very reliant on transition attacks from deep to create most of their chances. They like to get the ball out wide and try to swing crosses to the box. That is how they scored their lone goal against Austria and it’s a way they can create chances here against France. During qualifying, France had the highest cross completion rate allowed into their box of anyone in the Euro field. Austria completed four crosses in the first meeting and if Poland is able to do the same, they will have a chance to score.
The scenario that France are in is tricky. Since they drew with the Netherlands a draw is not enough to win the group, so they will have to win this match, but also be scoreboard watching in the other match. If they go ahead by a goal here, Deschamps has proven over his career that he will sit back in a low defensive block and look to play in transition. Without Mbappe, it makes it harder to see how France are going to get margin in this match.
I only have France projected at -164, so I like the value on Poland +1.5 at -103
Pick: Poland+1.5 (-103 via bet365)
| Chile Odds | +600 |
| Argentina Odds | -239 |
| Draw | +350 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -110 / -110 |
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Argentina were incredibly impressive against Canada in their opening match from a chance creation standpoint. They created 2.98 expected goals with most of their chances coming in transition. Normally, opponents will sit in low defensive blocks against Argentina, but teams like Saudi Arabia and Uruguay decided to press them and beat them in transition and it worked, but it's a really dangerous game to play and it cost Canada.
The problem with Chile most stems from their out of possession approach. They are a team that likes to press high, but too many times they get completely opened up in transition. Because their build up structure is so narrow, in theory teams shouldn't be playing through the middle, but they’ve been torching them in transition. Chile allowed the most counterattack shots per 90 minutes along with the highest long ball completion rate, so if they decide to press high in this match, they are in for a world of trouble.
Argentina have been the most difficult team to beat in the world since the the start of the 2022 World Cup, putting up a -1.22 xGD per 90 minutes and allowing just 6.6 expected goals in their last 14 matches.
So, I really like Argentina to beat Chile by multiple goals.
Pick: Argentina -1.5 (+125 via bet365)
