Here's everything you need to know for my Euro 2024 & Copa America best bets for Slovakia vs Ukraine and Peru vs Chile.
BJ Cunningham is here to take you through the upcoming matches and offer up his expert picks. Cunningham is part of the Wondergoal podcast crew that will be guiding you through both the Euros and Copa America giving his favorite picks.
If you'd like to see picks from Cunningham during the season for both the Euros and Copa America, follow them in the Action Network App.
If you'd like to see our projections for both tournaments, you can find them here.
Here are Cunningham's Euro 2024 & Copa America best bets.
Euro 2024 & Copa America Best Bets
| Slovakia Odds | +270 |
| Ukraine Odds | +110 |
| Draw | +230 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 +110 / -138 |
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Ukraine were probably the least impressive team of the group stage, losing 3-0 to Romania and only creating 0.55 expected goals. The problem that has existed for Ukraine for a long time is the are not a great tactical side and they have been putting up mediocre underlying numbers despite having loads of talent.
Early on in qualifying, Sergiy Rebrov had them strictly building out of the back and trying to be a possession-dominant side, no matter who they were facing. What ended up happening was they continually were turning the ball over in their own end of the pitch and giving their opponents easy transition opportunities. That is exactly how they conceded the first goal against Romania and the third one was a result of a high turnover as well.
Ukraine controlled 71% of the ball and ended up taking 13 shots for the match, but eight of those shots came from outside the box and they ended up being way too reliant on set pieces because they couldn’t create anything from open play.
As Slovakia showed against Belgium they are a team that is willing to press high, which is how they scored their lone goal. So, they can give Ukraine some problems. Slovakia during qualifying had one bad match against Portugal where they conceded close to six expected goals, but in every match they allowed under 1.5 expected goals.
The final aspect of Ukraine is that since September of 2021 they have a negative expected goal differential in non-friendlies. You cannot out run bad underlying numbers, as eventually they will catch up with you.
I have this match projected right at a pick’em, so I like the value on Slovakia +0.5 at -125.
Pick: Slovakia +0.5 (-135 via Caesars)
| Peru Odds | +333 |
| Chile Odds | +100 |
| Draw | +210 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 +150 / -200 |
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Surprisingly, Chile are actually a very good possession side. They will typically build out of a 4-2 shape with the fullbacks pushing high and wide with everyone else remaining in the center parts of the pitch to help them try and build through the middle. They actually led World Cup Qualifying in progressive passes and passes into the final third, which is a really impressive feat doing so over Argentina and Brazil.
The problem that exists for Chile is even though they averaged 54% possession, they rarely do anything with it. The problem is they really lack talent and finishers in the final third to open up solid defensive blocks. During World Cup Qualifying, they only averaged 1.12 xG per 90 minutes and had an incredibly long average shot distance.
Peru have even more problems offensively. Over their six World Cup Qualifying matches in late 2023, they created a total of 2.5 expected goals and their final match against Venezuela was the only one they created over one expected goal. It was so bad that they had to fire their manager Juan Reynoso and bring in Jorge Fossati. They are going to set up in a very compact 5-3-2 out of possession and rely on a few transition breaks, which didn't work when these two met in World Cup Qualifying in late 2023, as Peru took a total of four shots and created 0.13 xG.
The both teams to score line closed at -175 in that World Cup Qualifying match, so there is no reason why it should be sitting at -140.
Pick: Both Teams to Score – No (-140 via DraftKings)
