Euro 2024 continues on Monday with three fixtures.
Like World Cup 2022, I'll have projections for every game, along with analysis and any potential bets that result from showing projection value.
My projections simulate each game 250,000 times and are powered by my colleague BJ Cunningham‘s offensive and defensive power ratings for each team. Using his power ratings, I use something called diagonal-inflated bivariate poisson to simulate the scoring distribution for each game.
Let’s dive into my Euro 2024 match projections for Monday's Austria vs France game and more.
Euro 2024 Match Projections (June 17)
Ukraine vs Romania, 9 a.m. ET
- Ukraine to win -105 at DraftKings
- Ukraine goal ladder (over 1.5 goals +124 at FanDuel 1u, over 2.5 goals +430 at FanDuel 0.25u, over 3.5 goals +1200 at FanDuel 0.1u)
I have Ukraine favored to win 57.9% of the time while Romania have faced one of the easiest cycle of all teams. Meanwhile, not only did Ukraine face the second-most difficult schedule, they also never got the benefit of a true home game.
I'm also showing value on the over thanks to Romania's lack of defensive ability, leading to my best bets.
Picks: Ukraine ML (-105 via DraftKings), Ukraine Goal Ladder – Over 1.5 (+124 via FanDuel), Over 2.5 (+430) .25u, Over 3.5 (+1200) .1u
Belgium vs Slovakia, 12 p.m. ET
Belgium are favored to win at 58.3%. However, this projection is the toughest as Belgium scored nine goals above their xG in qualifiers and allowed 2.4 goals less than their xG in those games.
The question for Belgium is if this is a trend or if they will regress to expectation a bit, and we should expect regression.
Because of expected regression for Belgium, the simulations show value on Slovakia and a draw, so the best bet may be Double Chance – Slovakia and Draw +170, but I'm just going to pass on this one and see how Belgium perform to get a sense of where they stand.
Austria vs France, 3 p.m. ET
France are favored to win 58.3% of the time. However, Austria are no slouch and the simulations show value on their win and draw chances.
