Euro 2024 kicks off with hosts Germany taking on Scotland in Munich for Friday's lone game.
Like World Cup 2022, I'll have projections for every game, along with analysis and any potential bets that result from showing projection value.
My projections simulate each game 250,000 times and are powered by my colleague BJ Cunningham‘s offensive and defensive power ratings for each team. Using his power ratings, I use something called diagonal-inflated bivariate poisson to simulate the scoring distribution for each game.
Let’s dive into my Euro 2024 match projection for Friday's Germany vs Scotland game.
Euro 2024 Match Projections (June 14)
Germany vs Scotland, 3 p.m. ET
Germany are a 74.6% favorite to win according to my simulations. Overall my simulations are in line with the market, so to find value we need to look at the margins.
One such margin comes from Scotland playing in a difficult Euro qualifying group, with top-three teams from each pot in their group. That results in a bigger positive adjustment to their power rating than the hosts.
FanDuel has the best line on Scotland to cover a +1.5 spread at +108. I'm showing fair value at +103.
This is very thin value, so I'm only putting half a unit on it.
