Euro 2024 continues today on Wednesday, June 26 with four fixtures, and I have picks for two games.
Like World Cup 2022, I'll have projections for every game, along with analysis and any potential bets that result from showing projection value.
My projections simulate each game 250,000 times and are powered by my colleague BJ Cunningham's offensive and defensive power ratings for each team. Using his power ratings, I use something called diagonal-inflated bivariate poisson to simulate the scoring distribution for each game.
Let’s dive into my Euro 2024 match projections for Wednesday's Georgia – Portugal game and more.
UEFA Euro 2024 Match Projections (June 26)
Georgia vs Portugal, 3 p.m. ET (Hosts Germany)
Portugal are favored to win 84.2% of the time per my simulations. Georgia have struggled defensively, allowing 5.8 xG in two games against Turkey and Czechia. Portugal have a better offense than both of them, even if they play some backups.
Pick: Portugal -1.5 (+109 via bet365)
Czechia vs Turkey, Group Stage, 3 p.m. ET
Czechia winning is the most likely outcome at 43.8% per my simulations. Given they are in must-win mode, we can expect them to push for goals. Turkey also need a draw at the minimum, meaning this game could open up if the Czechs score first.
