Euro 2024 continues on Saturday with three fixtures.
Like World Cup 2022, I'll have projections for every game, along with analysis and any potential bets that result from showing projection value.
My projections simulate each game 250,000 times and are powered by my colleague BJ Cunningham‘s offensive and defensive power ratings for each team. Using his power ratings, I use something called diagonal-inflated bivariate poisson to simulate the scoring distribution for each game.
Let’s dive into my Euro 2024 match projections for Saturday Spain vs. Croatia game and more.
Euro 2024 Match Projections (June 15)
Hungary vs. Switzerland, 9 a.m. ET
The Swiss had a +11 goal differential in qualifiers vs a +20 xGD. On the other end, Hungary posted a +9 GD in qualifiers vs +3.9 xGD. The Swiss also have more overall talent defensively
Picks: Switzerland to Win (+125), Exact Score Switzerland 2-0 Hungary (+1000 via FanDuel)
Spain vs. Croatia, 12 p.m. ET
I'm showing value on the under with two great defenses, including Spain who I have power rated second among all defenses. Croatia only allowed 0.58 xG/game in qualifying, and Spain were also a touch fortunate.
This means these two teams are closer than they're being given credit for, and I'm showing value on the draw as well.
Pick: Correct Score 0-0 or 1-1 (+280 via FanDuel)
Italy vs. Albania, 3 p.m. ET
Albania have a surprisingly stingy defense, allowing just four goals in qualifying and only 1.04 xG/game in qualifying. Meanwhile, Albania scored just 0.93 xG/game in qualifying against worst defenses than Italy.
Expect Albania to struggle with this Italy defense, and I have the under hitting more than 60% of the time.
