France have been flying under the radar at Euro 2024 as they have gone through a monumental level of underperformance. France have not been able to score a goal themselves from non-penalty situations, but they have only conceded once. It hasn’t been talked about enough how good they have been defensively, and that leads me into the simple reality that you should be betting France to win Euro 2024 at their current price.
Euro 2024 Picks: France +275 via bet365
France have not conceded a non-penalty goal and their opponents have only created 3.7 npxG in five matches, which is the lowest of anyone left in the tournament. Saliba and Upamecano have proven to be the best center back pairing in this tournament because of their elite box defending and ball winning ability.
France really shouldn’t be an underdog against Spain. They’ve had better underlying metrics over the last two and a half years and are more talented. The match also sets up really well for France, who are much better playing without the ball and in transition as opposed to them being the ones having to break down an opposing defensive block. Spain are going to be without Dani Caravjal and Robin Le Normand, who are two of their best defenders, so Spain will be vulnerable to France’s counterattacks.
As Germany showed, Spain are a terrible box defending team as the Germans created well north of two expected goals, so no matter the game state, France will have their chances, and even if they don’t they are still the best defensive team left in this competition.
I have France projected as a -114 favorite to advance over Spain and if they make it to the final, I would have them projected as the favorite to lift the trophy against either England or the Netherlands. So, I think they should be the favorite to win the Euros, not third on the odds board.
