Euro 2024 Picks | Expert Predictions Ahead of Knockout Stage, Featuring France

The group stage is over at Euro 2024 and now it's time for the business end of the event. The bracket is fairly lopsided with Germany, France, Portugal and Spain all on one side with England all alone on the other, which is why the Three Lions are now the favorites to win the Euros.

The futures market has shaken up quite a bit as some of the longshots from the beginning of the tournament like Switzerland and Austria have shortened.

Here I will be re-evaluating the futures market and giving out a couple of bets based on the draw for the knockout stage.

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If you'd like to see our projections for both tournaments, you can find them here.

Here are my Euro 2024 picks and expert predictions ahead of the knockout stage.

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Euro 2024 Picks

France to make the Semis (+140 via bet365) 

France surely haven't got off the mark at this tournament, as they've yet to score a goal themselves from a non-penalty situation. That doesn't mean they are struggling to create chances though. Through their first three matches, France have created 5.1 non-penalty expected goals, which is third in the competition behind only Portugal and Spain.

Kylian Mbappe missed the match against the Netherlands with a broken nose, but he returned against Poland and provided a big boost because they need his finishing and ability to hurt teams in transition.

I really like France against Belgium in terms of a matchup. Belgium have faced three teams where they are the ones controlling most of the possession, but that might not be the case here. Their press was terrible against Ukraine and they aren't great defending in the wide areas, which is where France's two best attackers are lurking.

What has been an underrated aspect of France in this tournament has been their defense. Saliba and Upamecano have proven to be a very good center back partnership, along with Kounde at right back. With essentially three center backs on the pitch it makes it much harder for teams to transition against them, especially with the ball winning of N'Golo Kanté and Aurélien Tchouaméni in the midfield.

They have a potential quarterfinal matchup with Portugal, but I would have them projected as a favorite to advance, so I really like the price on them at +140 to make it to the semifinals.

Orkun Kökçü Most Assists (+2500 via bet365) 

The way this tournament has been going with goals and assists, nobody has been able to pull away in this department. There are currently three players tied at the top in terms of assists – Dennis Man of Romania, Remo Freuler of Switzerland and Orkun Kökçü of Turkey.

If the Euros took place last summer, Orkun Kökçü would be a name that a lot of bigger clubs would be after. Under Arne Slot at Feyenoord he won the the Eredivisie Player of the Year for the 2022-23 season and then subsequently made a move to Benfica. Things haven't really gone according to plan and he's found it hard to find a place in the squad, but he is one of the best ball progressing and creative midfielders in this tournament. Just look what he did in limited playing time at Benfica this season.

(image via fbref.com)

He played all 90 minutes and got an assist versus Georgia, but has only featured for 49 minutes in their last two matches as Montella has favored playing two holding midfielders and their captain Hakan Çalhanoğlu as the No. 10. Well, Hakan Çalhanoğlu is serving a yellow card suspension for their match against Austria, which means that Kökçü will most likely be in the lineup in some capacity.