Marseille vs. Feyenoord Odds
| Marseille Odds | +110 |
| Feyenoord Odds | +210 |
| Draw | +270 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-180 / +140) |
| Day | Time | Thursday | 3 p.m. ET |
| How To Watch | Paramount+ |
| Odds updated via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here. | |
Marseille and Feyenoord Rotterdam played a thrilling first leg of their Europa Conference League semifinal-round tie last Thursday that resulted in Dutch host earning a 3-2 victory in Rotterdam.
However, the Phocaeans are more than capable of turning the two-legged matchup on its head when the venue shifts to the south of France on Thursday for the all-important reverse fixture.
Marseille has been one of the biggest over-performers relative to expected goals in all of Europe, but it has also rolled through the competition since being eliminated from the Europa League group stage. The Phocaeans defeated Qarabag, 6-1, on aggregate over two legs, handled Basel, 4-2, with consecutive one-goal wins and won both legs against Greek side PAOK.
The club's run of six consecutive knockout victories ended last Thursday in the Netherlands. Feyenoord has had some impressive European performances this season, from its two wins against Union Berlin and elimination of Slavia Prague in the quarterfinal round.
The market continues to show a lot of respect to overvalued Marseille and I'm playing against them yet again in this second leg.
Marseille Enjoying Good Run of Luck
Marseille sits in second in Ligue 1, but has been quite fortunate to run this well and be on the verge of a Champions League return. Marseille ranks 11th in average xG per shot; 11th in shot distance; and, sixth in non-penalty expected goals per match. The Phocaeans' numbers are inflated because of an overreliance on penalties, as they lead the French top flight with 10 penalties.
That's not just the most penalties in France. The club is tied with Borussia Dortmund for the most penalties in all of Europe. Given Marseille's play style — slow, patient build-up with a lot of passing — you wouldn't expect it to catch defenses out in places where it would need to concede penalties when defending in space.
Marseille has run well defensively as well when you look at its underlying numbers. The Phocaeans concede a lot of big scoring chances relatively speaking, and when they're able to control possession, they're excellent at denying opponents' high shot volume. Feyenoord's direct counterattacking approach caused problems in the first leg and I expect it to be similarly effectively defending a lead in this match.
Marseille has punched well above it underlying numbers and will regress at some point. The last two defeats to Feyenoord and Lyon last time out might just be the beginning.
Feyenoord Putting Together Solid Season
Feyenoord has posted a really impressive Eredivisie campaign on top of its Europa Conference League success. The club is heading toward a comfortable third-place finish behind Ajax and PSV Eindhoven, and really pushed Ajax in a recent 3-2 defeat to the dominant Dutch side.
The attack has run over a lot of quality defenses in Europe this season, notably Union Berlin and Slavia Prague. Both sides have been tough to break down, but have struggled against Feyenoord. The attack is good enough that some outlets have it ranked as high as the eighth best in the world.
That's probably too high on this attack, but Feyenoord absolutely wrecked Marseille in the first leg with more than two xG on 13 shots. The club is even more lethal when operating in space and will have plenty once winning the ball off Marseille's slow possession build-up style.
Betting Analysis & Pick
The Eredvisie has not gotten nearly enough respect in the betting market. Even though Ajax was upset in the UCL, it trucked its way through the group stage and was quite unlucky not to go deep in the tournament. Eindhoven outplayed Leicester City in its quarterfinal before going out on two late goals. Vitesse also impressed in its group stage with Rennes and Tottenham.
Sometimes the market is too slow to catch up to a league's strength and I believe that's the case with Feyenoord and the Netherlands.
Combine that with an overrated Marseille side and I'd bet Feyenoord to avoid extra time, thus advancing by getting a result on the road at -140 or better.
Pick: Feyenoord +0.5 (-130)
